The Mariners may have finished 10th in the majors in team ERA last season, but the bigger picture points to a rotation that should climb back in 2027. That’s where Kade Anderson enters the conversation, because the projections don’t just like him - they put him right in the middle of the staff’s future.
Steamer’s 2027 numbers have Anderson making 24 starts and posting a 3.28 ERA for Seattle. That’s a strong vote of confidence on its own, but the number gets even louder when stacked against the rest of the rotation. Anderson is projected to finish with a better ERA than Logan Gilbert (3.44), Bryan Woo (3.52) and George Kirby (3.71), three established starters who all have All-Star selections on their résumés.
The comparison gets even more eye-catching from there. Anderson’s 3.28 ERA projection sits in the same range as Paul Skenes (3.29) and Shohei Ohtani (3.31).
Skenes and Ohtani were both Rookie of the Year winners, and that’s where Anderson’s path gets especially interesting. He’ll still carry rookie status in 2027 because he did not exceed 45 days of active service in the majors this year, which keeps him eligible for the award.
That creates a real opening for Anderson to join that group. Ohtani won the AL award in 2018, while Skenes took the NL version two years ago, and Anderson now has a statistical profile that suggests he could be next in line.
The talent has been building for a while. Anderson’s 2026 season in Arkansas was a monster, as he ripped through Double-A hitters and led all minor league pitchers with a 1.06 ERA and 0.643 WHIP. That run earned him MILB Pitcher of the Year honors, and it also set up the buzz that followed when the Mariners called him up on August 22.
He wasn’t perfect in his first taste of the majors, but the seven-start sample still gave Seattle plenty to like. One of the clearest signs came in Denver, where he threw 7.0 scoreless innings and allowed only three hits against a Rockies lineup that ranked fifth in the majors in team OPS.
There are still areas for him to sharpen, especially against left-handed hitters and in terms of velocity. But the sense around Anderson is that those are development points, not red flags. His command and four-pitch mix, all considered above average, give him a foundation that should play in today’s game even before any added velocity arrives.
Seattle has more than one young arm or bat with Rookie of the Year potential, too. Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo are also eligible, with Montes bringing major power and Arroyo offering consistent contact. Even so, Anderson is the one who stands out most clearly as the Mariners’ best bet to make a real run at the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2027.
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