The AL West has spent most of the year looking ordinary. Now it’s setting up for something a lot more unusual.
Houston entered Thursday on top of the division, but only barely: a half-game ahead of Texas and 2 1/2 games ahead of Seattle, with all three clubs still under 30 games left. Seattle and Texas were both idle Thursday, while the Astros were set to face the New York Yankees, which means the Mariners will head into Friday’s three-game road series at Toronto either two or three games behind first place.
Seattle has not exactly been backing into the race, either. Over its last 10 games, the Mariners have gone 6-4, and that stretch included three-game sets against the Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies. During that run, they shaved three games off Houston’s lead and one off Texas’ edge.
And yet the numbers still don’t love them. FanGraphs gives Seattle the weakest division odds of the three contenders at 26.4%, with Houston at 37.9% and Texas at 35.8%.
The odd part is that the Mariners may still have the cleanest path.
Per Tankaton, Seattle has the easiest remaining strength of schedule in baseball by a long shot at .437. Toronto is next at .469.
Of the Mariners’ 28 games left, only three - at Boston from Aug. 31-Sept. 2 - are against teams that entered Thursday with a record of .500 or better.
Seventeen of those 28 games come against the Athletics, Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies, the three worst records in MLB.
Houston and Texas have much less forgiving finishes. The Astros’ remaining SOS is 13th-toughest at .506 and includes three games against Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Philadelphia and Arizona, plus four against the White Sox.
Texas sits 10th-toughest at .511, with three against Milwaukee, Boston and Arizona, and four against Tampa Bay. All of those opponents for both clubs except Arizona were in playoff positions entering Thursday.
Seattle also has a tiebreaker edge if the division ends in a dead heat among the three teams. That tiebreaker goes to the club with the best record against the other two, and the Mariners are already 12-9 against Houston and Texas this season. They can lock it up by winning two of their final three against the Rangers, or by taking any three of the five games they still have left combined against Houston and Texas.
There’s also a bigger wrinkle hanging over the whole race: this thing could get weird enough to make history. FanGraphs projects Houston for the most wins in the group at 80.8, which means a team might only need to play .500 ball the rest of the way to win the division.
If someone finishes on top with a losing record, it would be the first time in MLB history. The closest example came in 2005, when the Padres won the NL West at 82-80.
The AL West has brushed up against that kind of scenario before. In 1994, Texas was in front at 52-62 before the season was wiped out by a player’s strike.
And if Seattle is the team that pulls it off, it would add another strange first to the city’s sports ledger. The Seahawks became the first NFL team to win a division at 7-9, and the Mariners would join them as another Seattle club to do it in a full season.
In Other News...
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Mariners Playoff Push Now Carries A Bigger Dan Wilson Debate
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Sports Illustrateds Karl Rasmussen recently raised the possibility that Wilson could be fired if the Mariners fall short, but argued that would be the wrong move given what he already accomplished and the injury problems the roster has battled. For a team still trying to salvage its season, it turns the final stretch into more than a standings chase, with Wilsons future now hanging over every game. [Read more 🡒]