With pitchers and catchers set to report in just under three weeks, the Seattle Mariners’ second base situation is once again front and center - and still very much unresolved. The departure of Jorge Polanco, who chose a bigger payday with the Mets despite a preference to stay in Seattle, has left a noticeable gap. And while Brendan Donovan remains a potential trade target, there’s no guarantee the Mariners will be able to pry the 2025 All-Star away from the Cardinals.
That leaves top prospect Cole Young currently projected to take the reins at second base on Opening Day. Young brings plenty of intrigue and upside, but also plenty of question marks. And with the Mariners eyeing contention in a loaded AL West, the idea of handing a key infield spot to a rookie still developing his big-league legs is a risky proposition.
Enter Luis Arraez - at least in theory.
Why Arraez Makes Sense (on Paper)
The Mariners have been floated as one of three potential landing spots for the free agent infielder, and it’s not hard to see why. Arraez is a three-time batting champ who led the National League in hits last season. He's a contact machine in an era where strikeouts are sky-high - and that’s a trait Seattle could badly use.
Last year, the Mariners struck out more than any team in baseball. Arraez, meanwhile, posted a career-low 3.1% strikeout rate in 2025 and has only 215 strikeouts over seven MLB seasons.
That’s not just good - that’s elite-level bat control. And it’s backed by the data: Baseball Savant has him in the 100th percentile in K%, Whiff%, and Squared-Up%.
He’s also versatile. While Arraez has played more first base recently, he’s logged more career games at second base and could also serve as a designated hitter.
With Josh Naylor locked in at first for the next five years, Arraez wouldn’t be expected to see time there in Seattle anyway. His ability to move around the lineup could be a valuable asset for a team still figuring out how to maximize its offensive identity.
But There’s a Flip Side
For all his contact skills, Arraez doesn’t bring much else to the table. Over the past two seasons, he’s essentially been a 1-WAR player.
That’s not the kind of impact the Mariners are likely looking for if they’re going to spend in free agency. He hits singles - and a lot of them - but offers very little in terms of power, speed, or defensive value.
Despite those eye-popping percentile rankings in some categories, Baseball Savant has Arraez’s overall Batting Run Value in just the 15th percentile. That’s a pretty significant disconnect between the quality of contact and the actual impact on run production.
And it’s not just the analytics raising red flags. Scouting reports and projections alike paint a similar picture: Arraez is a below-average slugger, a non-factor on the bases, and a liability defensively. That’s a tough sell for a team trying to shore up the middle infield.
Even his affordability - some projections have him landing a two-year deal in the $24 million range - doesn’t necessarily make him a bargain. The Mariners have the financial flexibility to make that kind of move, but the question is whether it would actually make them better.
The Cole Young Factor
That brings us back to Cole Young. He’s unproven, sure, but he’s also one of the most promising young players in the organization. And while there’s always risk in handing a starting job to a rookie, there’s also upside - something Arraez simply doesn’t offer at this stage of his career.
Seattle has made it clear this offseason that they’re focused on building a more complete, more dynamic lineup. Adding a high-contact bat like Arraez might help reduce strikeouts, but it doesn’t solve the broader issues with run production, athleticism, and defensive consistency.
So while the idea of Arraez in a Mariners uniform makes sense on the surface - especially given the current uncertainty at second base - it’s not a slam dunk. In fact, it might not even be the right move at all.
The Mariners have decisions to make, and they’ll need to weigh the short-term stability Arraez could provide against the long-term potential of Cole Young. It’s a classic risk-reward scenario, and with the season creeping closer, the clock is ticking.