When it comes to envy in the MLB, the Mariners' starting rotation is a prime target. Just two seasons ago, they boasted the best rotation in baseball, and if not for injuries to four of their five main starters, they could have repeated that feat last year.
As we look ahead to 2026, the potential for this rotation is sky-high, assuming they stay healthy. However, there's a bit of concern among Mariners fans as Bryce Miller deals with left side oblique inflammation.
The big question in Seattle is who will take the mound as the Opening Day starter against the Guardians on March 26. Mariners manager Dan Wilson, when asked about this decision, emphasized that it's still early.
He stated, “We are still evaluating in some ways, but we’re always open to see what happens as we go. We still have two-plus weeks left, and so we’ll just, again, assess as we go.”
The race seems to be between Logan Gilbert and Bryan Woo. While Wilson's comments leave room for speculation, the math suggests Gilbert might have the edge. He’s been pitching every six days, and his schedule aligns perfectly for the Opening Day start at T-Mobile Park.
But is choosing Gilbert over Woo justified? Woo was undoubtedly the Mariners' standout last season.
He led the team with a 4.2 bWAR, was their only All-Star, and set a franchise record by pitching at least six innings in his first 25 starts of the 2025 season. His performance earned him a fifth-place finish in AL Cy Young voting.
There's a lingering thought that without his late-season pectoral injury, Woo could have propelled the Mariners even further, potentially changing their postseason fate.
Woo's dominance wasn't a one-time affair. By the end of 2024, he was already the team's top starter, leading in ERA and ERA+, and finishing second in WHIP. Over the past two seasons, Woo has been the ace of the Mariners' rotation.
Gilbert, on the other hand, is no slouch. Despite a step back in 2025 due to a right elbow flexor strain, he still managed a solid 3.44 ERA, 173 strikeouts, and an impressive 1.031 WHIP over 25 starts. If not for the injury, Gilbert might have mirrored his 2024 performance, where he led the majors with 208.2 innings and a 0.887 WHIP, along with 220 strikeouts.
The Mariners might be considering the long game with Woo. His health has been a concern throughout his career, with various injuries including forearm inflammation and a hamstring strain.
By starting him later than Opening Day and utilizing April's off days for extra rest, the Mariners could preserve his durability. This strategy worked last season, allowing Woo to achieve a career-high 186.2 combined innings.
There's also talk that Woo might be more open to a contract extension. Giving him the Opening Day start could be seen as a gesture of goodwill. However, Woo's primary focus is on staying healthy, which influenced his decision to decline an invitation to represent Team USA at the World Baseball Classic.
Woo is under team control through the 2029 season, providing plenty of time for potential long-term negotiations. While he'd undoubtedly love the honor of starting on Opening Day, Woo is unlikely to be disheartened if he isn't chosen. With his current trajectory, there will be more opportunities for him to earn that nod in the future.