The Mariners are heading into the second half with the kind of season that can still go either way, and the next 65 games will decide which direction this thing takes. Seattle has spent most of the year floating around .500, and now it’s barely hanging onto a Wild Card spot after losing the top of the AL West to the Rangers.
That leaves the All-Star break with a real purpose beyond the usual noise: a chance to reset, get healthier, and figure out what kind of team this actually is. A few things could push the Mariners toward a strong finish. A few others could drag the whole season off course.
The biggest swing factor might be the injured list. Cooper Criswell and Matt Brash have both been major misses for the bullpen, while Brendan Donovan’s absence has been one more hit to an offense that hasn’t found much rhythm.
Even Julio Rodríguez has missed time after being hit by an errant throw. The encouraging part is that help is on the way.
Brash and Criswell are expected back in late August, Donovan has started a rehab assignment with the Arizona Complex League, and Julio should be back on the team as soon as they return to action against the Giants this weekend. Seattle’s fill-ins have done what they could, but the club hasn’t had its full group together in a long time.
There’s also a path where the pitching gets even nastier. The Mariners already own a 3.61 team ERA, which ranks sixth in MLB, and that’s with injuries and their attempted piggyback protocol in the mix.
Even more help could be waiting in the minors. The team has made it clear that Kade Anderson is expected to arrive at some point in the second half, and his Double-A numbers have already given fans a glimpse of what he might bring.
Ryan Sloan hasn’t matched Anderson’s production for the Travelers, but his prospect status is right there with him, if not higher, and his Futures Game showing reminded people why some view him as a better pitching prospect than even Seth Hernandez. If Seattle gets one or both of those arms into the mix, whether in the bullpen or the rotation, the club could lean even harder into its best trait: run prevention.
But there are just as many ways this can go sideways.
Cal Raleigh’s slump is one of them. It’s been a rough year from the start for Raleigh, who opened with a brutal first month before going on the injured list for the first time in his career with an oblique strain.
The hope was that the break might help him find something at the plate. Instead, the struggles have continued.
Since returning in mid-June, he’s hit just .185/.323/.296 over 99 plate appearances. The walk rate is still solid at 12.5%, but the power has disappeared, and his quality of contact has cratered.
His hard-hit rate sits at 32.5%, which puts him alongside Joey Ortiz and Nolan Arenado, and that’s not where Seattle needs its catcher to live. Against four-seamers, he’s slugging just .185, and the inability to catch up to velocity has turned him from a lineup anchor into a real problem.
The trade deadline could also leave the Mariners short. Reports say the club is shopping one of its starting pitchers, with Luis Castillo the most likely name in play.
The issue is that Castillo’s contract runs through 2028, and his numbers have dropped sharply this year, with a 4.93 ERA and 4.16 FIP over 87.2 innings. That makes any deal tricky.
If Seattle wants a meaningful upgrade, it may have to give up some of its better prospect capital, and that’s not always a price the front office is eager to pay. With so many teams still alive in the American League playoff race, the market could tilt toward sellers.
If the Mariners stay cautious and only make small moves, it may not be enough to lift them where they want to go.
In Other News...
Mariners Finally Got The Donovan Update This Lineup Needed
The Mariners finally got a meaningful step forward on the Donovan front, as the infielder began a rehab assignment with the clubs Arizona Complex League affiliate. He is easing back in as a designated hitter, a sign the team is starting the ramp-up process after a long stretch without one of the infield options it hoped to lean on.
Donovans absence has been felt in a lineup that has struggled to find enough offense, and Seattle has been waiting for some kind of jolt from a player acquired in February. Since arriving, he has been limited to 25 games, so even a rehab assignment carries added weight as the Mariners try to get him back into the mix and see how quickly he can move toward a return. [Read more 🡒]
New WBC Details Make Cal Raleigh's Slide Look Even Worse
Cal Raleighs season has already been a rough one by his standards, with the Mariners catcher sitting on a negative bWAR and lagging well behind the level he showed a year ago. The latest World Baseball Classic details only add another layer to the story, because Team USA manager Mark DeRosa said Raleighs swing was off during the tournament, a sign that the issues were not limited to his current slump in Seattle.
DeRosa said Raleigh was hooking balls, flying open with his front shoulder and rolling over the top hand, and the usage pattern told its own story as well. Raleigh went 0-for-9 and did not appear in the semifinal or final, while the WBC also brought a right oblique strain and a noisy handshake incident with Randy Arozarena into the picture, leaving one more reminder that his path through that event was anything but smooth. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Suddenly Have A Tough New Decision On Their Young Arms
A new benchmark for young pitching money has landed around the league, and it gives the Mariners another layer to think about as they weigh the future of their own arms. Cincinnatis agreement with Chase Burns is the kind of deal front offices notice immediately, especially in Seattle, where the rotation has been built around homegrown talent and the club has already shown a willingness to lock up key position players for the long haul.
Bryan Woo is the obvious name in that conversation, but he is hardly the only one. Seattle also has top prospects like Ryan Anderson pushing toward the majors, and the organization has to decide how aggressive it wants to be before those pitchers get expensive through the arbitration process. The Mariners have already made their comfort with extensions clear in other parts of the roster, but the pitching side is where the next big test may come, and the Burns deal only sharpens the clock. [Read more 🡒]