The Seattle Mariners are heading into 2026 with something they haven’t had in a long time - expectations. Real ones.
The kind that come with pressure, but also with promise. After a 90-win campaign in 2025 and a hard-fought seven-game ALCS against the Blue Jays, Seattle enters the new season not just as a team on the rise, but as a team projected to lead the American League.
That’s not hyperbole - it’s math. Baseball Prospectus’ latest projections have the Mariners pegged for 94 wins this year.
That’s the highest total in the AL, ahead of even the Yankees (89 wins projected), and second only to the Dodgers (104) across all of Major League Baseball. For a franchise that hasn’t topped 93 wins since that legendary 116-win season in 2001, this is rare air.
Now, projections aren’t promises. But the optimism is grounded in more than just vibes - it’s rooted in the roster, the depth, and the way the front office has built this team.
Seattle’s offseason wasn’t flashy in a big-market, headline-grabbing way, but it was smart. Strategic.
And it’s already showing signs of paying off.
The Mariners are doing all this while operating with a middle-of-the-pack payroll. Their 40-man sits at $162.1 million, 16th in MLB, and their luxury tax payroll of $186.5 million ranks 17th.
Compare that to the Dodgers, who are spending like a team trying to buy a dynasty - $318.8 million on the 40-man and a staggering $412 million in luxury tax payroll. Seattle, by contrast, is playing Moneyball 2.0 - building a contender without breaking the bank.
That’s possible because of their young core. Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo, and George Kirby are still in their arbitration years, giving the Mariners high-level production at a fraction of the cost.
Cal Raleigh, J.P. Crawford, and Andrés Muñoz are on team-friendly extensions that were inked before the market could fully reset their value.
These deals are the kind of front-office wins that don’t make headlines in January but win games in September.
Still, a 94-win season assumes a lot goes right. Health is the biggest variable.
A significant injury to any of the frontline starters, Julio Rodríguez, or Cal Raleigh could throw the whole machine out of sync. Raleigh, in particular, is coming off a season where he combined elite defense behind the plate with a .900 OPS - a rare feat for any catcher, let alone one asked to carry such a heavy load.
Replicating that won’t be easy, but it might be necessary.
Then there are the new faces. Josh Naylor and Brendan Donovan are expected to play key roles, and early returns have been promising.
But Seattle will also need contributions from depth pieces like Rob Refsnyder and Jose A. Ferrer.
And if someone like Cole Young takes a leap, that could be the difference between a good team and a great one.
This is the challenge that comes with expectations. The Mariners are no longer sneaking up on anyone.
They’re not the underdog or the feel-good story. They’re projected to win the AL.
That means every slump will be scrutinized, every injury magnified, and every series will feel like it matters - because it does.
But that’s a good problem to have. For years, Seattle was a franchise stuck in neutral - not bad enough to rebuild, not good enough to contend.
Now, they’ve got a roster that’s young, deep, and built to win. And the baseball world is taking notice.
The 94-win projection might not come to pass. Baseball is too unpredictable for that.
But the fact that it’s even on the table? That tells you everything you need to know about where this team is headed.
The Mariners aren’t chasing relevance anymore. They’ve found it.
Now comes the hard part - living up to it.