Mariners' Cole Young Optimism Is Real - But Is It Enough for a Team Trying to Win Now?
Every winter, the Seattle Mariners seem to tell us the same thing in a slightly different way: We’re always looking to improve… but we really like what we’ve got.
This offseason, that message is wrapped in praise for Cole Young - a 20-year-old infielder who’s quickly become the front office’s favorite buzzword. According to reports, Seattle remains “high on” Young, and one rival executive even called him “the league model darling right now,” a nod to how well he grades out in projection systems, even if scouts aren’t quite as sold.
And sure, it’s easy to fall in love with a player who looks great in a spreadsheet. But if you’re a Mariners fan still thinking about how close this team came to a World Series berth, you’re probably asking the right question: Is this genuine belief in a rising prospect… or just a cost-effective way to fill a hole?
The Projections Are Promising - But Not Game-Changing
Let’s start with what the numbers actually say. The Steamer projections for Young in 2026 paint a picture of a solid contributor - not a star, and not someone you build your infield around just yet. We’re talking about a potential part-time role: 79 games, 300 plate appearances, a .242/.328/.365 slash line with 5 home runs, a 103 wRC+, and 1.3 WAR.
That’s useful. That’s a guy who can help. But that’s also not someone you hand a starting job to on a team with postseason expectations.
What we saw from Young in the majors last season backs that up. In 77 games and 257 plate appearances, he hit just .211 with a .302 OBP and a .305 slugging percentage. His wRC+ sat at 80 - below league average - and his defensive metrics didn’t do him any favors, with a -5.4 Def dragging down his overall value.
The League Adjusted - Now It’s His Turn
This is the part of the story we’ve seen time and time again with young hitters. They get their first taste of the big leagues, pitchers find the weak spots, and the real test begins: Can you adjust?
In Young’s case, pitchers went right after him with fastballs. According to Baseball Savant, he hit just .185 against four-seamers last year, with a rough run value and a wOBA that essentially dared teams to keep attacking him in the zone. That’s not a death sentence for a prospect, but it’s a clear sign he’s not quite ready to be handed a full-time role without backup.
There are encouraging signs, though. Young’s plate discipline is already a strength - a 10.9% walk rate and 18.3% strikeout rate in 2025 show a level of maturity beyond his years.
And his expected wOBA (xwOBA) suggests he may have been a bit unlucky. He wasn’t overwhelmed - he just wasn’t quite impactful yet.
The Bigger Picture: Seattle’s Window Is Open Now
Here’s where this gets tricky: The Mariners aren’t rebuilding. They’re not a team in transition. They’re a contender, and projection systems like ZiPS see them as one of the American League’s heavyweights heading into 2026.
That’s why penciling in a rookie with question marks at second base feels like a gamble - not a plan. This isn’t about Young’s potential; it’s about timing. A team this close to breaking through can’t afford to carry a developmental project in the starting lineup and hope it works out by July.
And that’s why the front office’s belief in Young starts to feel a little too convenient. Especially when it aligns so neatly with the rumors swirling around Seattle’s trade strategy.
If they go out and land a player like Brendan Donovan - someone with defensive versatility and on-base skills - the narrative becomes more believable. Donovan could play all over the infield, take pressure off Young, and raise the overall floor of the roster without blocking the kid long-term.
But if Seattle stands pat and tells fans that Young’s upside is the reason they didn’t make a move? That’s when it starts to sound less like conviction and more like cost control.
Belief Is Great - But Insurance Is Smarter
There’s nothing wrong with betting on Cole Young’s future. He’s a polished hitter with a good eye, a solid approach, and the kind of profile that could absolutely grow into a valuable everyday player. But there’s a difference between believing in a guy and building your roster around that belief - especially when the data says he’s still in the “prove it” phase.
If the Mariners want to show they’re serious about making a deep playoff run, the path is pretty clear: Add a proven infielder. Give Young room to grow without putting the season on his shoulders. Let him earn his role by contributing, not by default.
Otherwise, this starts to feel less like a bold bet on a top prospect - and more like a budget decision in disguise. And for a team with a real shot at making noise in October, that’s a risk they don’t need to take.