The Mariners are still hanging around, but only just. With 15 games left, Seattle’s playoff push has been reduced to a long shot that keeps finding little cracks of life because the rest of the American League has left the door open.
That’s the strange reality for a club sitting at 69-78 as it heads into a nine-game road trip starting Friday. Seattle has dropped three of four to the Athletics, then salvaged two of three against the Rangers, but that still leaves the M’s with just five wins in their last 14 games. The record says what the recent form does: this is a team running out of runway.
And yet, not out of it.
In the AL West, the Astros sit atop the division at 75-72, three games ahead of the Rangers and six in front of Seattle. If the Mariners somehow ripped off 15 straight to finish 84-78, Houston would need to end up at 85-77 to stay ahead of Seattle in the division because the M’s own the tiebreaker after winning the season series. In that scenario, Houston’s magic number to knock Seattle out of the race would be 10.
There’s another way to look at it, though, and it’s even less forgiving for Seattle. If the Astros simply play to their current .510 pace over the final stretch, they’d land at 83-79. That would leave the Mariners needing a 14-1 finish just to match Houston and claim the tiebreaker.
The wild card picture is crowded, which is both a problem and a sliver of hope. Cleveland holds the third and final spot at 74-73, and there are four other teams sitting between the Guardians and Seattle.
If you narrow the focus to Cleveland, the Guardians can mathematically eliminate the Mariners by reaching 84 wins. That would require a 10-5 finish to get to 84-78, and their closing slate is no cakewalk: the Twins, the White Sox, a surging Athletics team, the likely postseason-bound Red Sox, and a Royals club that has stumbled overall but did go on a 12-1 run in late August.
If Cleveland finishes at its current .503 clip, it would end at 82-80. That would put Seattle in the same position it faces against Houston: 14-1 the rest of the way to finish 83-79.
The one thing the Mariners do have going for them is the schedule. Their remaining opponents have combined for a .403 winning percentage, the easiest strength of schedule left in baseball.
It starts with the Athletics, who just beat Seattle in Seattle last weekend, but the season series is even at 5-5. The A’s have also struggled in Sacramento, where they’re 27-45 at home, and Seattle swept its one three-game road series there.
After that comes a three-game trip to Anaheim beginning Monday against an Angels team that is 59-90. Seattle has taken four of six meetings from them this season, and the clubs will meet again in Seattle for four games from Sept. 24-27.
Then comes Colorado, where the Rockies are 55-91 and own the worst record in MLB outside of the Angels. They’ve won just 42% of their home games, going 30-41.
The only opponent left with a winning record is Houston, which comes to T-Mobile Park for two games on Sept. 22-23. That’s the one series that could still flip the whole picture, especially since Seattle has owned the Astros this year, going 9-2 against them, and has carried that edge back to 2023.
For now, the Mariners just need results - and plenty of them. The road back is narrow, but it’s still there.
Friday’s opener in the series at Oakland features George Kirby for Seattle against Jeffrey Springs, with first pitch at 6:40 p.m. Bryan Woo starts Saturday at 6:40 p.m. against Gage Jump, and Bryce Miller takes the ball Sunday at 1:05 p.m. against Jacob Lopez.
In Other News...
Mariners Now Have A First Base Problem They Can't Easily Fix
Josh Naylor gave the Mariners exactly the kind of early jolt they hoped for after joining Seattle, putting together a strong start and piling up hits. But as the season has worn on, the bigger picture has become harder to ignore. He leads the club in hits with 142 through Sept. 11, yet most of those have come as singles, and the lack of damage has left his slugging percentage at .359.
For a team that needs more from the middle of its lineup, that creates a real problem at first base. Naylors power production has faded badly in the 2026 season, with just 10 home runs in 137 games, and the Mariners are left trying to reconcile what they expected from the spot with what they have actually gotten. It complicates both the offense and whatever they had in mind for the position beyond this year. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners May Need A New Manager For One Frustrating Reason
Dan Wilsons first full season in the dugout has given the Mariners a familiar kind of frustration, the sort that invites a bigger conversation about direction rather than just one bad night. His hands-off style has been part of the discussion from the start, along with the way he has managed the bullpen and handled player accountability, and those choices have left some wondering whether the club is getting enough in-game edge when the margins get tight.
Nothing has been decided, and there is no official change on the horizon, but the possibility of a reset is hard to ignore when a season starts feeling like a referendum. If Seattle does move on, the next manager will likely need to bring a firmer strategic presence and a clearer command of the game, because the Mariners seem to be weighing not just results, but whether the current approach is the right fit for what comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Trade With Rays Just Got Tougher To Defend
The deal that sent Randy Arozarena to Seattle looked cleaner for the Mariners when it was built around long-term upside, but Tampa Bay keeps finding ways to make its side of the trade look smart, too. Brody Hopkins is now being called up and added to the Rays 40-man roster after a role change from starter to reliever turned his season around, a reminder of how often Tampa squeezes value out of pitchers other clubs might have given up on.
Hopkins has flashed a fastball that has touched 102 mph, and the results in relief have been much better than what he showed as a starter, with his ERA and WHIP both moving in the right direction. For Seattle, Arozarena has been a productive bat since arriving, but the bigger picture still tilts toward Tampa Bay, which has already locked up a playoff berth while the Mariners have spent the year fighting for ground in the standings. [Read more 🡒]