The Mariners look awfully good on paper for 2027, at least if you buy the latest FanGraphs projection that has Seattle’s roster sitting third in Major League Baseball with 46.4 WAR. Only the Dodgers, at 52.0, and the Yankees, at 47.3, grade out better.
That’s a pretty wild place to land after a 76-86 2026 season. And there’s a decent case for optimism.
That ugly year looks like the kind of one-off mess that won’t repeat itself, especially with Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Josh Naylor all positioned to be better. The pitching staff still has plenty of electric arms, and the new coaching staff also looks promising.
But the deeper you dig into the projection, the less tidy it gets.
FanGraphs is leaning heavily on the offense. Seattle’s position-player group is projected for 27.4 WAR, tied for third among all teams.
The pitching staff, meanwhile, comes in at 19.0 WAR, which ranks sixth. That’s where the numbers start to strain a little, because the Mariners’ hitters were 24th in rWAR and 22nd in fWAR this season.
And that was with Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford in the mix.
Both are free agents now, which lines up with Mike Petriello’s view that Seattle’s biggest needs are in left field, right field and shortstop.
Still, the projection does point to a core that has some real punch. Even without Arozarena and Crawford, six players are projected to clear 2 fWAR in 2027, which would be two more than the club had this season.
Julio Rodríguez is projected for 679 plate appearances and 5.1 WAR. Cal Raleigh checks in at 590 plate appearances and 4.6 WAR.
Cole Young is at 588 and 3.1. Brendan Donovan is projected for 553 plate appearances and 2.9 WAR, Josh Naylor for 651 and 2.5, and Dominic Canzone for 553 and 2.1.
The rest of the projected group is more of a question mark. Colt Emerson is listed at 532 plate appearances and 1.6 WAR, Lazaro Montes at 525 and 1.5, Michael Arroyo at 448 and 1.4, and Luke Raley at 462 and 1.2.
That’s where the optimism gets harder to trust. Raleigh and Naylor are both coming off surgery.
Rodríguez still carries growing concerns about his plate discipline and defense. Donovan has dealt with injuries in each of the last two seasons, and he’s not getting any younger.
Emerson had a rough rookie season and is coming off wrist surgery. Arroyo just had elbow surgery.
Raley also had season-ending surgery this year and could be a non-tender candidate. Montes remains the classic boom-or-bust prospect.
All of that makes it hard to look at the projection and assume the offense is already set. It also explains why an offseason move feels necessary for Jerry Dipoto.
There are signs he knows that, and even if a reunion with Arozarena probably isn’t in the cards, there are other names to consider. Teruaki Sato and Seiya Suzuki are both described as being potentially in Seattle’s price range.
At the same time, Dipoto has said the current roster is “pretty complete.” Maybe that’s just him playing it close to the vest. But given his and John Stanton’s history of caution in the offseason market, it’s fair to wonder whether he believes it.
In Other News...
Mariners May Need To Worry About An AL West Team Again
The As are trying to reset their baseball operation again, and for the Mariners that is at least worth a glance. Oakland has brought in Taylor Smith as president of baseball operations and Cam Castro as general manager, a pair of hires that signal a new direction for a club that has spent recent seasons trying to stabilize on the field while sorting out its long-term future off it. The Athletics have also been wrestling with pitching issues, which only adds to the urgency of getting the front office right.
For Seattle, the bigger picture still looks favorable. The Mariners have climbed in the AL West since 2021 and have built around a young, talented roster backed by a strong farm system, giving them a much firmer base than the one they were working from a few years ago. But Oaklands move toward Las Vegas in 2028 could shape how aggressively the As spend and retain players, and if this new front office can get the pitching side moving in the right direction, the division may not stay as comfortable as it has looked lately. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Trade Push Faces One Huge Problem Before The Lockout
The Mariners are in the middle of the MLB general managers meetings, trying to gauge what might be possible on the trade market before the sport hits a lockout on Dec. 1. Seattle has been linked to trade exploration, but the backdrop matters here: uncertainty around the leagues financial picture and the rules that will govern the next stretch has made front offices cautious, and that has slowed the kind of aggressive movement teams often hope to get done in November.
For Seattle, the more realistic window may open after the collective bargaining agreement is resolved, when clubs can better sort out both the economics and the roster landscape. There is already a sense that starting pitching could become a hot commodity once business resumes in earnest, which gives the Mariners a reason to stay engaged even if the pre-lockout market remains mostly in a holding pattern. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Bullpen Hunt Could Finally Test How Bold Jerry Dipoto Gets
Jerry Dipoto has made it clear the Mariners are at least looking at the bullpen market, and the timing makes sense. Seattles relief corps has been good enough in stretches, but the front office has not hidden its interest in finding a cleaner fit through free agency, especially with the current market shaping up as one that could reward a team willing to act early and decisively.
One name that has surfaced in that conversation is Bryan Abreu, a buy-low type whose recent performance metrics make him an intriguing fit for a club that wants upside without paying top-of-market prices. The question for Seattle is whether Dipoto is ready to step outside the teams recent pattern and make a more aggressive reliever move, because the kind of deal projected for Abreu would signal a different level of boldness than the Mariners have shown in this lane. [Read more 🡒]