The Mariners are heading into the winter with a fresh round of optimism, but anyone who has followed this franchise knows better than to take that at face value. Seattle is coming off a 76-86 season, and that kind of year tends to drain away whatever goodwill was built up before it. So when Buster Olney and Jesse Rogers of ESPN floated the idea of a “splash” this offseason, it landed as encouraging news with a built-in warning label.
The biggest reason for caution is simple: the Mariners have not exactly been a club that goes all-in in free agency under John Stanton and Jerry Dipoto. Yes, there was the Robbie Ray deal - five years, $115 million - and the Josh Naylor contract - five years, $92.5 million - but even those stayed close to the $100 million line. Stanton has also made his preferences pretty clear.
“I’d much rather [sign players in their 20s] than sign a 30-year-old or 31-year-old star player who had been a star in their 20s to play through their 30s and maybe through 40 years old,” the Mariners owner said back in September.
Dipoto’s track record is a little different, but it comes with its own catch. He is absolutely willing to make moves when the club is in buy mode, though those deals usually show up in the summer rather than the winter.
Naylor, Luis Castillo, Randy Arozarena and Eugenio Suárez are the kinds of names that fit that pattern. Winter trades, by contrast, have often been tied to salary relief, which makes it harder to call them true splashes.
The deals that brought in Ray, Jean Segura and Robinson Canó were more splashy on the other side.
Still, if Seattle really wants to make noise, the path is there.
The Mariners should have room to chase a high-end free agent, and not every name on the market runs into Stanton’s discomfort with older stars. Japanese slugger Teruaki Sato, who is 27, is a possible fit at third base.
Adrian Morejon, also 27, would be a dream addition for the bullpen. Seattle may well get outbid on both, but they are at least realistic options.
There is also the trade market, where the Mariners have real ammunition. MLB Pipeline has six Seattle prospects in its top 100, which gives the front office the kind of prospect depth needed to swing for an impact player. That means just about anything should be in play, including shortstops like Elly De La Cruz, Gunnar Henderson, Otto Lopez, Jeremy Peña and Zach Neto.
One thing that helps Seattle’s case is that Stanton has not been completely unwilling to spend big on free agents. Another is that Dipoto has shown he is willing to move top-100 prospects in winter trades.
He dealt two of them last winter to land Brendan Donovan and Jose A. Ferrer.
Those were smaller swings than the kind the Mariners would need now, but they do establish a precedent.
There is also a possibility that Dipoto finally loosens up on his reluctance to trade a starting pitcher. Olney reported that Dipoto is “poking around to assess how its surplus in pitching might be used to add a bat.”
Logan Gilbert, George Kirby or Emerson Hancock could only bring so much back. But if Seattle were to put Bryan Woo - or even Kade Anderson or Ryan Sloan - into the conversation, that would be a different level of pursuit entirely.
So the idea of a Mariners splash is real enough to discuss. It just comes with all the usual Seattle caveats.
In Other News...
Mariners Quietly Address Two Roster Needs Before Free Agency Opens
With free agency and the roster cutdown deadlines approaching, the Mariners have started to quietly shape their 40-man picture with a pair of waiver claims that fit the kind of low-risk, depth-building moves front offices make this time of year. Seattle added outfielder Grant McCray and right-hander Isaac Mattson, giving itself a little more flexibility while also taking a look at two players with enough talent to merit a longer evaluation.
McCray brings an outfield profile that could give the Mariners another option to develop, while Mattson offers the kind of arm clubs often try to sort through in the offseason. The broader significance here is less about immediate impact than about what these moves say about Seattles priorities: preserve roster space where possible, add competition where it makes sense, and keep searching for useful pieces before the winter market fully opens. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Are Taking A Huge Gamble With Their Next Manager
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Kanzlers rsum includes time as a hitting coordinator for the Astros and as the Cubs director of player development, which gives Seattle a different kind of voice at the top of the clubhouse. The appeal is obvious enough: a modern, development-minded approach from someone the organization believes can grow into the job. The unanswered question is how quickly that leap from behind the scenes to the front of the dugout will have to happen. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Just Opened A Bigger Randy Arozarena Decision
The Mariners have put a familiar offseason checkpoint in front of Randy Arozarena by extending him a $23.15 million qualifying offer, a move that keeps the door open for a return while also protecting the club if he winds up elsewhere. Arozarena now has a decision to make, and the expectation around the industry is that he will turn down the one-year deal as Seattle weighs whether it wants to push harder on a longer-term arrangement.
For the Mariners, the real question is bigger than the qualifying offer itself. If Arozarena departs and lands a deal worth more than $50 million guaranteed, Seattle would be positioned to collect a compensatory draft pick after the first round of the 2027 draft, but the front office still has to sort out whether it prefers to keep working toward a reunion or start planning for a lineup without him. That makes this less like a procedural move and more like the opening of a much larger roster conversation. [Read more 🡒]