Did the Mariners Jump the Gun on Trading Harry Ford? A Closer Look at a Risky Deal
The Seattle Mariners have mostly wrapped up their offseason moves, with perhaps one more tweak left before pitchers and catchers report. But as the dust settles, it’s time to take stock-not just of what they’ve added, but of what they might have missed.
And one decision in particular is raising eyebrows: the trade that sent top catching prospect Harry Ford to the Washington Nationals in exchange for left-handed reliever Jose A. Ferrer.
On the surface, the Mariners are standing by the deal. President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto even called Ferrer “the No. 1 trade target on our list.”
That’s not lip service-they clearly believe they’ve landed a bullpen arm who can make an impact. Ferrer doesn’t come with a ton of name recognition, but his stuff is no joke.
He’s got a fastball that can touch triple digits, paired with a changeup and slider that generate whiffs. That kind of velocity from the left side is a rare commodity, and Seattle is betting they can unlock his full potential.
But as with any trade involving a top prospect, the long-term picture matters. And that’s where the questions start to creep in.
The Value Question
According to Baseball Trade Values, the Mariners gave up significantly more than they got back. The model pegged Ford’s surplus value at $20.9 million, while Ferrer was valued at $12.6 million.
That’s a pretty wide gap, even before factoring in right-hander Isaac Lyon, who was also included in the deal. While Lyon hasn’t cracked Seattle’s system yet, his inclusion only adds to the cost.
Now, these models aren’t gospel, but they do give us a useful baseline. And in this case, they’re flashing a warning sign: Seattle may have overpaid.
Who Is Harry Ford?
Ford finished last season ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 42 overall prospect, and he enters 2026 as their No. 9 catching prospect. The big question surrounding him is whether he’ll stick behind the plate.
But if he does? You’re looking at a dynamic, athletic catcher with on-base skills, speed, and power-a rare blend at one of the game’s most demanding positions.
Yes, Cal Raleigh has a firm grip on the starting catcher job in Seattle, and Ford’s path to playing time was far from clear. Trading from a position of depth makes sense.
But the key is getting the right return. And that’s where this deal feels a little light.
Could the Mariners Have Done More?
This winter has seen a clear demand for catching across the league. The Phillies locked up J.T.
Realmuto with a $45 million deal. The Twins shelled out $14 million for Victor Caratini.
And now, both the Rays and Red Sox are reportedly shopping for catching help-with the free-agent market all but dried up, trades are the only path forward.
So here’s the real question: Could Seattle have waited and used Ford to swing a bigger deal?
Take the Rays, for instance. They’ve shown interest in Ford before.
Could the Mariners have packaged him in a deal for someone like Brandon Lowe, a bat with pop and positional versatility? Or what about Boston?
If Ford were still in the fold, could Seattle have explored a move involving Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu-young, controllable outfielders with upside? Even a high-ceiling prospect like Kristian Campbell might’ve been on the table.
We don’t know what conversations did or didn’t happen. Maybe those doors were never open.
But with multiple teams actively looking for catching upgrades, it’s hard not to wonder if the Mariners acted too quickly. Ford was a valuable trade chip, and it feels like he could’ve been leveraged for more than a bullpen arm with a career 4.36 ERA.
What Now?
To be clear, this isn’t a condemnation of Ferrer. The Mariners clearly believe in his upside, and if their player development staff can fine-tune his mechanics and command, he could become a key piece in the bullpen. Big velocity from the left side doesn’t grow on trees.
But the trade does carry risk. If Ford develops into the kind of impact player many scouts believe he can be, and Ferrer doesn’t take a leap forward, this deal could haunt Seattle for years.
For now, Mariners fans are left in wait-and-see mode. The front office has made its bet.
All that’s left is to hope it pays off-and that Ferrer becomes more than just a hard thrower with potential. Because if Ford blossoms in Washington, this trade will be remembered not for the arm Seattle got, but for the opportunity they might’ve let slip away.