The Mariners have spent the early part of this decade looking like the steady force in the AL West while the Athletics drifted into the background. Since the 2021 season, Seattle has piled up the second-most wins in the division.
The A’s have the fewest. That gap is real, but it may not stay that way forever.
The reason for the warning signs starts in the Athletics’ front office, where the team has already made major changes this offseason. Taylor Smith is in as president of baseball operations, and Cam Castro has been hired as general manager. Both come with experience from the Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers and Boston Red Sox - organizations that were just in the World Series and another that finished third in the majors in Wins Above Replacement this season.
For Oakland, it’s a long-overdue reset. The Billy Beane “Moneyball” days are a distant memory now, and David Forst’s run as general manager finally ended when he was fired in August of this year. That move closed the book on three decades of front office continuity.
The hire that should make the rest of the division pay closest attention is Castro. He’s a former Driveline guy who worked in pitching development for the Brewers before rising to senior vice president of player development.
He helped develop Jacob Misiorowski and is tied to Milwaukee’s wider reputation for building overpowering pitchers. During the postseason, Brewers arms averaged 98.5 mph on the fastball.
That kind of edge is exactly what the A’s need. Over the last five seasons, they have finished no better than 13th in the American League in ERA. This year was even uglier: only the A’s and the Colorado Rockies ended the season with an ERA above 5.00.
Even with all the rebuilding still ahead, Seattle can’t afford to treat this as a distant problem. The Mariners and A’s have split the 26 games they’ve played over the last two seasons, and some of those Seattle losses were infuriating.
The old A’s formula used to be constant turnover. Jason Giambi was there, then gone.
Johnny Damon, same story. More recently, the club moved on from Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Sean Murphy.
That churn used to define them. It doesn’t anymore.
These days, the A’s are locking people up. They’ve handed out extensions of at least five years to Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Tyler Soderstrom and Jacob Wilson. That shift lines up with owner John Fisher’s growing commitment to the club’s future in Las Vegas, where the team is set to move in 2028.
They still aren’t operating like a big-spending club, but there’s a notable change already. The A’s opened this season with a higher payroll than even the Brewers.
Once Las Vegas brings a stronger, steadier revenue stream, that number could climb further. The team has already tried to extend 2025 AL Rookie of the Year Nick Kurtz, and another deal for No. 2 prospect Leo De Vries could eventually be in play.
For the Mariners, the good news is that their own window is still open. They remain a young, talented club with a deep farm system. That can’t really be said for the Astros and Rangers, who both have difficult paths to staying in the mix beyond 2026.
Still, Seattle would be wise to keep looking over its shoulder. With the A’s building toward Las Vegas and the Los Angeles Angels now being bought by Stan Kroenke, the AL West could be headed for a different kind of fight. It may not be long before Las Vegas and Anaheim become the places that shape the division.
In Other News...
Mariners Trade Push Faces One Huge Problem Before The Lockout
The Mariners are in the middle of the MLB general managers meetings, trying to gauge what might be possible on the trade market before the sport hits a lockout on Dec. 1. Seattle has been linked to trade exploration, but the backdrop matters here: uncertainty around the leagues financial picture and the rules that will govern the next stretch has made front offices cautious, and that has slowed the kind of aggressive movement teams often hope to get done in November.
For Seattle, the more realistic window may open after the collective bargaining agreement is resolved, when clubs can better sort out both the economics and the roster landscape. There is already a sense that starting pitching could become a hot commodity once business resumes in earnest, which gives the Mariners a reason to stay engaged even if the pre-lockout market remains mostly in a holding pattern. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Optimism Feels Premature With So Much Left Unsettled
There is reason for long-term optimism around the Mariners, even if the picture is still hazy enough to keep expectations in check. FanGraphs has projected Seattles roster as one of the strongest in baseball for 2027, with the offense doing much of the heavy lifting in that forecast, a reminder that the clubs future core still looks promising on paper.
But plenty can change between now and then, and the roster is hardly settled. Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor are coming off surgeries, while Randy Arozarena and J.P. Crawford are both headed for free agency, leaving Jerry Dipoto with decisions to make and, perhaps, room to shop for help if the front office decides the current group still needs more reinforcement. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Bullpen Hunt Could Finally Test How Bold Jerry Dipoto Gets
Jerry Dipoto has made it clear the Mariners are at least looking at the bullpen market, and the timing makes sense. Seattles relief corps has been good enough in stretches, but the front office has not hidden its interest in finding a cleaner fit through free agency, especially with the current market shaping up as one that could reward a team willing to act early and decisively.
One name that has surfaced in that conversation is Bryan Abreu, a buy-low type whose recent performance metrics make him an intriguing fit for a club that wants upside without paying top-of-market prices. The question for Seattle is whether Dipoto is ready to step outside the teams recent pattern and make a more aggressive reliever move, because the kind of deal projected for Abreu would signal a different level of boldness than the Mariners have shown in this lane. [Read more 🡒]