The Mariners may have to make the same kind of hard, unsentimental call with Josh Naylor this winter that they made with Robbie Ray at the start of 2024.
That’s the uncomfortable question hanging over a season that has gone sideways. Even after an impressive series win over the Rangers, Seattle’s playoff picture still looks bleak, and the more realistic concern is whether the club can even finish .500.
If that’s where this ends, the offseason has to be more than a tune-up. It has to be a full roster overhaul, and that means nobody should be automatically safe.
Naylor is squarely in that conversation.
That’s not because anyone is eager to see him go. It’s because the Mariners may have to strip away sentiment and look at the production for what it is. Seattle already did that with Ray, trading him away after only two seasons of the five-year, $115 million deal he signed after a Cy Young-winning season with the Blue Jays in 2021.
Ray never quite became the ace Seattle paid for. He was solid enough in his first year with the Mariners, but not dominant.
Then came the moment that stuck in everybody’s head: the walk-off three-run homer he allowed to Yordan Alvarez in Game 1 of the 2022 ALDS. After a strong spring training the next year, hopes for a rebound vanished almost immediately.
His 2023 season ended after just 3.1 innings of his first start, when he suffered a torn flexor tendon. He never pitched for the Mariners again and was traded to the Giants in January of 2024.
Naylor’s first season in Seattle has not played out nearly the way last year did.
He arrived as a spark after the trade from Arizona and was one of the biggest reasons the Mariners came as close as they ever have to a first World Series berth. This year, though, he has been far less visible.
He has had moments, including 26 stolen bases, but the overall line is rough: a .359 slugging percentage, 97 OPS+ and 0.2 bWAR. For a player expected to be part of the club’s “Big 3” alongside Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, that’s a tough return.
The drop-off is not just in the numbers. Naylor’s energy seemed to fuel the team last season. This year, that edge has faded, and fans have noticed the lack of hustle and the sense that his usual motor has been running on low power.
That creates a real front-office question. Naylor is under contract for four more years at $92.5 million, and he’ll be 30 next year.
Critics will point to an aging, big-bodied first baseman whose power looks diminished. Fair or not, that’s the conversation the Mariners have to have if they’re serious about reshaping the roster.
If they do decide to move him, one possible destination would be Toronto in a deal for Anthony Santander, who is on the same contract as Naylor but has three years left rather than four. That would send Naylor back to Canada and potentially into a first base/DH rotation with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has also had his struggles this season.
No one should expect Naylor to suddenly become the player he was last year in Seattle again. The more realistic hope is that he can at least drift back toward his career marks of a .761 OPS and 113 OPS+, while rediscovering the kind of spark that once made him such a force for the Mariners. But if the organization is going to be honest with itself, it has to evaluate everything without emotion, and that includes whether parting with Naylor is the right move.
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There was also a little extra familiarity baked into the moment. Arroyo had already played at Sutter Health Park earlier this season with Triple-A Tacoma, so the setting was not entirely new, even if the stage certainly was. For the Mariners, that matters because it gives a prospect who already looked promising another layer of comfort as he starts to carve out his place on the roster. [Read more 🡒]