The idea of Stephen Vogt coming back to Seattle sounds simple on the surface. It isn’t.
Vogt spent the final season of his playing career in 2022, then jumped right back into the game in January 2023 when the Mariners hired him as their bullpen and quality control coach. He lasted one season in that job before Cleveland picked him to manage the Guardians, and in the three seasons since, he’s collected two Manager of the Year awards.
That background is exactly why his name has surfaced as a possible answer to Seattle’s vacancy after Dan Wilson’s departure. Vogt already knows the organization, and he’s established himself as one of the most successful managers in the sport. The catch is that he’s still tied to Cleveland, and if the Mariners want him back, this would not be a simple phone call.
A trade for a manager is rare enough to feel strange, but Seattle has lived through this before. Back in 2001, the Mariners dealt Lou Piniella to Tampa Bay after years of Piniella wanting to be closer to home. In return, Seattle got Randy Winn, who went on to post a 104 OPS+ and 8.8 rWAR over two and a half seasons as a Mariner.
That history is what led Adam Jude of The Seattle Times to float the idea now. But even if Cleveland were open to talking, Vogt would come at a steep price. He has been a major part of the Guardians’ success, especially during their unlikely climb to the top of the AL Central this year.
The Guardians also don’t operate like a club that gives away valuable assets for cheap. Like the Brewers and Rays, they’ve built a reputation for squeezing the most out of their roster, and that makes any deal with them tricky. The contract details for managers are usually private, so it’s not even clear how many years of club control remain for Vogt.
Still, even if Seattle were only getting one year, Cleveland could reasonably push for a strong prospect package. A handful of top prospects would not be a surprise, and even names from the top 10 might be in play. The Guardians are under no pressure to move the manager who has guided them to three straight division titles.
Vogt is not the only manager Seattle is said to be chasing, but he may be the most appealing one. After a frustrating season and a series of moves that have already shaken up the organization, Jerry Dipoto is under more pressure than ever. If the Mariners are going to make a bold move to reset the mood, a manager trade this unusual might be the kind of gamble they’re willing to take.
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But the path to getting there may be far murkier than the fit itself. Reports say the Blue Jays are expected to pursue Suzuki this winter, and Torontos bigger payroll and greater willingness to spend could make a bidding fight difficult for Seattle to win. For the Mariners, the question is not just whether Suzuki helps, but whether they can realistically stay in the race if the market turns into the sort of spending contest their front office usually has to avoid. [Read more 🡒]