Last night’s Mariners game brought lineup construction into the spotlight, showcasing how strategic decisions can impact the outcome, even if they sometimes seem minor. The Mariners opted to put Rob Refsnyder in the leadoff spot against a left-handed pitcher, given his impressive on-base percentage against lefties since 2023. This move aimed to maximize his chances of getting on base before the heavy hitters stepped up.
The logic is clear: having Refsnyder lead off means he’s likely to face the lefty starter multiple times, which is ideal. However, baseball lineups are cyclical, and this strategy led to a potential pitfall.
The Mariners have a designated hitter platoon with Refsnyder and Dominic Canzone. Once Canzone comes in as a pinch hitter for Refsnyder, it sets up a back-to-back of left-handed hitters, Young and Canzone, making it easy for opposing teams to exploit with a left-handed reliever.
This exact scenario unfolded last night, forcing Ryan Bliss to pinch-hit against a tough lefty, Erik Sabrowski, with the game on the line. The outcome wasn’t favorable for the Mariners.
A simple lineup tweak could alleviate this issue. By adjusting to a 1-2-3 of Julio-Refsnyder-Cal against left-handed starters, the Mariners could prevent that lefty pocket from forming.
This way, if an opponent decides to bring in a left-handed reliever, they’d have to face Julio, who, while not dramatically better against lefties, rarely faces lefty specialists. This setup forces the opposition to make a tough choice, either facing Julio with a lefty or keeping a righty in for Young or Canzone.
The return of J.P. Crawford will add another layer of complexity.
The anticipated lineup would likely feature a bottom four of Donovan, J.P., Robles, and Young, creating another lefty pocket. However, since it’s at the bottom, it’s less likely to be exploited multiple times once the starter is out.
This further supports the idea of moving Refsnyder from leadoff to second, spreading out the platoon spots.
Of course, it’s crucial to remember that these are real players, not just names on a lineup card. Routine and comfort play significant roles, especially for key players like Julio and Cal.
Julio has expressed reservations about leading off, preferring not to rush his focus after playing centerfield. If these are the considerations driving the Mariners’ decisions, they’re valid.
But if flexibility exists, a lineup shuffle against southpaws could prove beneficial.