The Mariners are down to the wire, and the path in front of them is unusually clear.
At 66-74, Seattle would normally be buried by now. But this season hasn’t played out like a normal one, not in a flat American League and not in an AL West that still has room to move. The Mariners enter Thursday 4 1/2 games behind the last wild-card spot and five back of the division-leading Astros, yet the race is still live because of what’s left on the calendar.
No club in baseball has an easier remaining schedule than Seattle, according to Tankathon, and the soft landing begins immediately with the Athletics coming to town Thursday. The Mariners and A’s will play seven times over the next 11 days, and that stretch is only part of the setup.
Seattle still has seven games left against the AL West’s bottom tier beyond Oakland. After finishing with the A’s, the Mariners go to Anaheim for three games against the MLB-worst Angels, then close the regular season with four more at home against the Angels. They also have a three-game trip to Colorado against the Rockies, the National League’s worst team.
That leaves 17 games against the only three teams in baseball with winning percentages below .400. If the Mariners handle those, they give themselves a real shot to climb in the division, because the other five games are the ones that can swing the whole thing: three at home against the second-place Rangers and two more in Seattle against the Astros.
And the teams ahead of them don’t have nearly as friendly a run.
Houston has the 13th-toughest remaining schedule in MLB, with games still ahead against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, plus series against Philadelphia and Arizona. Texas has it even rougher.
The Rangers own the ninth-toughest remaining slate, with four against Tampa Bay and three-game sets coming against Boston, Toronto and Minnesota. The Red Sox are in the second AL wild-card spot, the Blue Jays are tied with Texas in the race, and the Twins are only two games back.
Seattle does at least bring some life into this final push. The Mariners took two of three in Boston, and their bats finally woke up a bit in that series. Fangraphs gives them a 20.9% shot to make the playoffs entering Thursday, but that number can change fast if they start stringing together wins against the schedule in front of them.
The math is simple enough, even if the climb is steep. Cleveland enters Thursday at 70-69 and currently holds the final AL wild-card spot.
Fangraphs has the Guardians finishing 82-80, and because Cleveland owns the head-to-head tiebreaker after going 4-3 against Seattle, the Mariners would need to finish 83-79 to get past that projection. That means 17 wins in their final 22 games.
There’s another route, though, and it may be the cleaner one. Fangraphs projects the Astros to finish 82-80 as well, and Seattle has already locked up the head-to-head tiebreaker with a 9-2 record against Houston so far, with two more games still to play between the teams in Seattle. In that version of the race, 16 wins over the final 22 games would be enough to put the Mariners in October.
It’s still there for Seattle. They just have to cash in.
In Other News...
Mariners Take A Chance On A Former Top Prospect With Upside
The Mariners added a familiar kind of lottery ticket to their pitching depth, signing right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson to a minor-league contract and sending him to Triple-A Tacoma. Once regarded as one of the better young arms in the system, Woods Richardson has already seen the majors with both the Blue Jays and Twins, and his path has taken him through a designation for assignment by Toronto before he elected free agency.
For Seattle, the move fits the sort of low-cost gamble contenders often make when they believe there is still something to unlock. Woods Richardson gives the organization another arm to evaluate in Tacoma, where the Mariners can keep a close eye on a pitcher who made his big-league debut in 2022 and is still young enough to factor if the stuff and command come together again. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Just Created A Connor Joe Question Fans Can't Ignore
The Mariners latest roster shuffle left Connor Joe in a familiar but uneasy spot. After Seattle designated Joe and right-hander Nolan Kingham for assignment to make room for Lzaro Montes and Hoby Milner on the 40-man roster, both players cleared waivers and were outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma, keeping the move from being the end of the road for either player just yet.
Joe now has a decision to make, since he has the right to elect free agency, and the Mariners have not indicated whether he plans to stay in the organization or test the market. Kinghams path is more straightforward because his service time means he has to accept the assignment, but Joes situation is the one that lingers for Seattle, where every roster spot matters and every fringe move can hint at what comes next. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners May Have Found A Better Use For Their Latest Pitching Add
The Mariners added another arm to their system by signing right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson to a minor-league deal and sending him to Triple-A Tacoma. Most of his big-league work has come as a starter, but he has also handled multiple roles this season, which makes him an interesting fit for a Seattle pitching staff that suddenly needs more flexibility.
With rotation depth thinned by an injury, the appeal here is less about where Woods Richardson has traditionally worked and more about where he might help most. Seattle can use pitching in just about any form right now, and his ability to cover innings gives the club another option if it wants to patch a game together out of the bullpen or lean on a bulk reliever while the roster sorts itself out. [Read more 🡒]