The Red Sox and Randy Arozarena make sense on paper - maybe too much sense to ignore, and maybe just enough to make the whole thing messy.
Boston has been hunting for more thunder in the middle of the order, and this offseason’s free-agent class doesn’t offer a ton of clean solutions. Arozarena, though, stands out.
The 31-year-old left fielder is a three-time All-Star and, according to the chatter already building around the league, the best bat heading to the market this winter. Rumors tying him to Boston started popping up back in September, and Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times only turned up the volume when he broke down why Arozarena will not be returning to Seattle.
“He will almost certainly be looking for full no-trade protection,” Divish wrote. “Teams like the Red Sox, Mets, Yankees, Phillies and Cubs all have known needs for a right-handed hitter. ...
Arozarena gave the Red Sox a nice three-game audition late in the season in Boston, going 6-for-15 with a double, two homers and eight RBI. Also his defensive limitations could be negated at Fenway Park, where he can play deep and run in on fly balls or turn and play them off the Green Monster.
The Red Sox also have Ceddanne Rafaela, the reigning Gold Glove winner, and favorite to win it again, in center field and Wilyer Abreu, who is vying for his third straight Gold Glove, in right field. ”
Divish also said Arozarena prefers the East Coast, another reason Boston keeps coming up.
Still, the fit gets complicated fast once you look at the roster. The Red Sox already have Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, Masataka Yoshida, Eli White and Jahmai Jones in the outfield mix, with Kristian Campbell and Nate Eaton also on the 40-man roster. That kind of crowd makes it hard to justify bringing in another corner/outfield bat unless Boston starts moving bodies out.
Duran would be the most obvious trade candidate. Yoshida is another name to watch, especially with only one year left on his deal. Even if Boston found a way to part with both, the addition of Arozarena would still leave the club with Anthony, Rafaela and Abreu - meaning the easiest way to fit everyone would be to use either Anthony or Arozarena at designated hitter most nights.
That version of the lineup is undeniably stronger. The issue is getting there.
Divish reported, citing MLB sources, that the expectation is Arozarena could land at least a four-year, $100 million deal, with a fifth year possibly needed. That’s where the real debate starts for Boston.
The Red Sox also have Sonny Gray’s $30 million mutual option with a $10 million buyout to sort through, and that decision is expected shortly after the World Series. On top of that, they’ll have to make tender decisions for arbitration-eligible players, all while weighing another major winter question: Adley Rutschman.
He has one season of control left and is a candidate for an extension this offseason.
Money will come off the books next year, but an Rutschman extension would likely be expensive, potentially in the nine-figure range based on previous deals for 28-year-old star catchers. Boston can afford to get something done - the Red Sox can always spend - but two nine-figure commitments would be a different story. If the club only goes big on one, the better bet would be Rutschman, who is three years younger and plays a position where Boston is not already overloaded.
There’s also the draft-pick wrinkle. If Arozarena receives and declines a qualifying offer from Seattle, then signs with Boston, the Red Sox would lose a pick. That’s another strike against the idea.
So the answer is pretty simple in the end: Arozarena fits offensively, and he fits a lot of what Boston wants. But the roster math, the money, and the potential cost in draft capital all make this a far trickier call.
If the price stays around $100 million, the Red Sox can at least stay in the conversation. If it climbs much higher, they may be better off using their internal pieces and chasing power on the trade market instead.
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