Jerry Dipoto’s winter may be shaping up as the kind where one swing changes everything, and if the Mariners are serious about adding a true middle-of-the-order star, Elly De La Cruz has to be part of the conversation.
The Reds shortstop is the kind of player teams don’t casually move. He’s 24, already has 15.2 career rWAR, and just put up a 30-30 season.
He also isn’t headed for free agency until after 2029, with a projected $7.9 million salary for 2027, which gives Cincinnati plenty of reason to treat him like a premium asset. Still, the Reds have already tried and failed to extend him, and with Scott Boras representing him, that path is never simple.
Cincinnati was also willing to listen on him at the trade deadline during what became an 87-loss season, which tells you at least one thing: the door isn’t locked.
If Seattle wants to kick it open, the price is going to be steep. Reports in August from Sean McAdam of MassLive and Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic said the Reds would need an overpay, either in “young major leaguers” or in “players close to the big leagues”.
The Mariners actually have the kind of system that can make a call like that worth taking. Jerry Dipoto has spent a decade keeping the pipeline moving, and this year alone Seattle added more talent by graduating Colt Emerson, Kade Anderson, Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes from the top-100 prospect ranks.
Arroyo, Anderson and Montes still have rookie eligibility in 2027, and MLB Pipeline slots them at No. 5, No. 41 and No.
- The organization also has Ryan Sloan at No.
11, Felnin Celesten at No. 60 and Jonny Farmelo at No. 83, with each of those three reaching Double-A. Baseball America also said no 2026 draft pick had a stronger pro debut than Ace Reese, who becomes trade-eligible the day after the World Series ends.
That’s the pool that makes a real De La Cruz bid possible. One proposed framework would send Anderson, Arroyo, Farmelo and Nick Becker to Cincinnati. The basic shape of that deal was inspired by a proposal from Jage of Words from the Wharf, but the underlying idea is simple: Seattle would be paying a massive price to get a massive talent.
There’s room to debate the exact pieces. Sloan could easily replace Anderson in the package, especially because Anderson already has MLB experience while Sloan does not.
But Sloan is close to the majors, and with his power stuff and command, he could wind up missing more bats than Anderson. That kind of arm matters in Cincinnati, where Great American Ball Park makes life hard on pitchers because the ball absolutely flies.
The position-player side is easier to see. Arroyo’s fit in Seattle is less obvious than his fit in Cincinnati, where he could jump right into second base, a spot that was MLB’s worst this season at -0.7 rWAR.
Farmelo would give the Reds a near-term answer in an outfield that finished 28th with 0.4 rWAR. Becker, meanwhile, had a .407 OBP and 46 stolen bases in the low minors this year, and he’d get to join a system that includes his older brother, Eric.
Baseball Trade Values pegs the Mariners’ side at $100.8 million in surplus value and the Reds’ side at $66.4 million, which is a heavy overpay by any measure. But that’s the cost of chasing a player with De La Cruz’s ceiling and years of control.
And that’s really the question for Seattle. At some point, do you keep stockpiling prospects, or do you cash some of them in for a difference-maker?
If Dipoto’s 54 percent strategy is the priority, the answer may always be to keep the pipeline intact. If the goal is to push this club into championship territory, the argument for a bold move gets a lot louder.
De La Cruz would give the Mariners exactly what they lack: star power. Pair him with Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor, Dominic Canzone, Colt Emerson, Cole Young and Lazaro Montes, and Seattle suddenly has a lineup built not just for one run, but for the next three years. That’s the kind of upside that makes a blockbuster worth considering.
Even if it never happens, it’s the kind of shot the Mariners ought to take.
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