The Seattle Mariners head into a huge weekend in Houston with their season hanging by a thread. At 57-65 and coming off losses in six of their last seven, they’ve watched their playoff outlook shrink to 31 percent, according to Fangraphs.
That makes this series with the Astros impossible to ignore. Seattle is five games behind Houston in the American League West, with the Texas Rangers sitting between the two clubs.
A sweep of the Astros would pull the Mariners as close as two games back and help their wild-card position, just like last year. But if the Mariners get swept, they could slip to eight games back, which would all but shut the door on their postseason chase.
The record between these teams might make Seattle look comfortable. The Mariners are 7-1 against Houston this season. But that number doesn’t tell the full story, because the Astros are not the same team they were when those losses piled up.
One major reason for concern is Jeremy Pena. The shortstop has been back in the lineup and producing, after appearing in only two of eight games against Seattle this year.
Pena is hitting .290 with 13 homers and 38 RBIs, and he’s carrying an .822 OPS with a 131 OPS+. Yordan Alvarez may still be the biggest threat in the Astros order, but Pena is right there behind him.
Houston also has Hunter Brown and Josh Hader back in the mix. The Mariners have not had to deal with either one all season because of injury issues, but both are available now.
Hader gives the Astros the kind of late-game arm that can slam the door if they get a lead, and Brown is scheduled to pitch Sunday. His 3.68 ERA says one thing, but Seattle’s offense has been so quiet that Brown still profiles as a real problem.
The matchup gets tougher for Seattle because of the way the Astros can line up their bullpen. The Mariners carry plenty of left-handed bats, including Josh Naylor, Brendan Donovan and Dominic Canzone.
Cal Raleigh, Leo Rivas and Brock Rodden are switch-hitters who either haven’t or don’t figure to do much damage from the right side. That matters because Seattle has been the worst team in baseball against lefties for most of the season, and Houston can keep bringing them in - Hader, Bennett Sousa, Bryan King and Steven Okert all give Dan Wilson different looks out of the bullpen.
Seattle’s own relief corps is another concern. The Mariners have been dealing with that problem for most of the year, and it becomes even more glaring in a series like this without Matt Brash and even Cooper Criswell. Gabe Speier’s struggles the other night only add to the uncertainty, especially with Alvarez looming in the lineup.
There is at least a chance of help coming. Carlos Vargas could return during the series after his rehab assignment, but he would still be something of an unknown since he hasn’t pitched all season.
In Other News...
Mariners Make A Shortstop Shakeup As Playoff Pressure Mounts
The Mariners made a notable infield move as the playoff race tightens, sending shortstop Colt Emerson back to Triple-A Tacoma and adding Brock Rodden to the major league roster. Emerson arrived with plenty of prospect buzz, but his rookie season never really found a steady rhythm, leaving Seattle looking for a fresh look as it tries to keep pace in the standings.
Rodden brings a different kind of profile, one built on versatility and strong production in Tacoma, and the club is betting that kind of depth can matter now more than later. For Seattle, the change is about more than just shuffling names on a roster card. It is a sign of how much pressure the final stretch can put on every spot, especially when a contender decides it cannot wait any longer for a young bat to settle in. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Just Made A Telling Colt Emerson Decision
Colt Emersons first run with the Mariners showed just how quickly the majors can expose a young players growing pains. Seattle had hoped to get a closer look at its shortstop of the future, but the early returns were rough enough on both sides of the ball that the club decided it needed to change course while keeping the bigger development picture intact.
The move gives Emerson a chance to reset away from the daily pressure of the big leagues, where the strikeouts piled up and routine defensive plays became an issue. It also opens the door for a different look on the roster as Seattle tries to patch together the lineup in the short term, with Brock Rodden getting the nod to step in and provide another infield option. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Infield Suddenly Looks Shakier After Colt Emerson Twist
The Mariners thought they had a straightforward next step for Colt Emerson, with the shortstop ticketed for Triple-A after a rough offensive stretch. Instead, the plan changed quickly enough to leave Seattle dealing with a different kind of infield uncertainty, as the club tried to keep the position covered while Emersons season took an unexpected turn.
Brock Rodden was the one who got the call from Tacoma, and he stepped right into the spotlight by making his major league debut at shortstop. For a team already trying to sort out its infield, the timing only adds to the intrigue, and Emersons return remains open-ended for now. [Read more 🡒]