If the Philadelphia Phillies really do put Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber on the market this winter, the Seattle Mariners should not sit around and admire the situation from a distance. They should call.
That’s the basic math after another Phillies playoff letdown, this time a loss to the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card Series. The frustration in Philadelphia has been building for a while now, and the talk around the league has already started to turn toward a possible shakeup.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic raised the possibility of Harper and Schwarber being available, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today did as well. It’s still framed as a question rather than a declaration, but the idea is out there for a reason.
There are reasons to believe Philadelphia could at least listen. Harper and Dave Dombrowski had tension last winter.
Both Harper and Schwarber produced solid seasons, but both also played their age-33 seasons, and the Phillies have plenty of veterans who are getting up there. If Philadelphia wants to tilt younger, moving one of those bats would make sense.
For Seattle, that kind of opportunity would be hard to ignore after a 76-86 season that exposed the same old issue: the lineup needed a real impact bat. Randy Arozarena helped, but he is now about to hit free agency after posting career-best marks with a 148 OPS+ and 5.7 rWAR, while also notching a sixth straight 20-20 season.
The problem for Seattle is price. Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times pegged Arozarena’s next deal as potentially high as $125 million, and that is not the kind of money the Mariners are expected to spend. There was a time when the Robinson Canó contract happened, but that was before John Stanton took control, and his approach has left little room for paying players in their 30s for what they did in their 20s.
That’s why Harper and Schwarber become interesting. Their contracts sit in the same neighborhood as what Arozarena might command:
Bryce Harper: $125.7 million through 2031
Kyle Schwarber: $132 million through 2030
The catch is obvious: both players may not bring much surplus value, or may even be underwater on that front, which makes any trade complicated. If Philadelphia is trying to get talent back instead of simply dumping salary, the Phillies would likely need to eat money to make a deal happen.
That’s where the Mariners would have to decide how far they’re willing to go. A deal built around Michael Arroyo might mean roughly $20 million.
With Lazaro Montes, it’s more like $25 million. George Kirby could push that to around $30 million.
If the actual cost could be brought down to around or even below $100 million, Seattle would have to take that seriously. Age is the obvious concern, but both hitters still bring plenty to the table.
Harper and Schwarber have combined for 136 playoff games. Over the last three seasons, Harper has averaged a 136 OPS+ and 29 homers, while Schwarber has hit at least 38 home runs in each of the last five seasons and has sat in the 130 OPS+ range over the last three.
Harper also has the ability to block a trade. He and his family spend the offseason in Tennessee, far from the Pacific Northwest and the Mariners’ spring training home in Peoria. If Seattle ever wanted to sell him on the move, the pitch would have to be strong, with the chance to become the player who helps drag a long-suffering franchise to the World Series front and center.
Are Harper and Schwarber long shots? Sure. But in an offseason where the Mariners need a jolt as badly as the Phillies do, they can’t afford not to ask.
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Dipoto has acknowledged how difficult it is to make meaningful changes in the middle of a season, and the calendar does not offer much relief. With the looming MLB labor stoppage expected to limit communication between team personnel and players, Seattle is staring at a compressed offseason and the possibility of a shortened 2024 season if Collective Bargaining Agreement talks drag on. For a team trying to reset while staying competitive, the timing could hardly be less forgiving. [Read more 🡒]