The Mariners are heading into free agency with offense on the wish list, but the bullpen may be where the cleaner upgrade lives. With the market set to open Monday, Seattle has reason to look hard at a reliever who just turned down a pretty sizable deal: Emilio Pagán.
Pagán declined a $10 million player option for 2027, according to Francys Romero of BeisbolFR on Saturday, and that decision suggests he believes there’s more money waiting for him in free agency. The 35-year-old right-hander has logged 522 career appearances and has picked up 57 saves over the last two seasons with the Reds. A new agreement with Cincinnati before the market opens is still possible, but it doesn’t sound likely.
There’s obvious appeal here for Seattle, even with the warning signs. Pagán has been a productive big leaguer for years, but his career has also come with some volatility. He’s posted five seasons with an ERA above 4.00, and as recently as July 19 this year, he was sitting on a 6.23 ERA.
The velocity trend also deserves a hard look. Pagán averaged 94.9 mph this season, right in line with his 95.0 mph career mark, but that was down from 95.8 mph last year. At 35, any dip can turn into a permanent one fast.
Still, there’s a strong case that his environment in Cincinnati skewed the numbers. Great American Ball Park has a reputation for helping balls leave the yard, and Pagán’s home-road splits over his three seasons with the Reds tell the story clearly:
Split
IP
ERA
WHIP
HR
OPS
Home
88.2
4.35
1.113
17
.730
Away
66.2
2.30
0.990
6
.559
That kind of split should catch Seattle’s eye. If there’s a ballpark that works in the opposite direction of Great American Ball Park for hitters, T-Mobile Park is about as close as it gets.
Pagán’s pitch mix also held up well in 2026. He leaned on a four-seam fastball with above-average induced vertical break, and hitters batted under .200 against it.
His cutter did the same. The splitter was the outlier, with a .304 average against, but the underlying numbers suggest that was more bad luck than a true collapse: a .206 xBA and a 41.5 Whiff% point the other way.
There’s another reason he fits Seattle: he wouldn’t be just another fastball-slider righty. That’s been the general shape of the Mariners’ bullpen with Andrés Muñoz, Matt Brash, Seranthony Domínguez, Eduard Bazardo and Carlos Vargas. Even with different pitch shapes and usage, the group has a lot of overlap, and it’s fair to wonder whether that sameness played a role in the bullpen’s broader issues this season.
Pagán also brings a different release point. He releases the ball from an average of 6.8 feet, which ranks in the 79th percentile. Seattle’s current right-handed relievers top out at 6.6 feet, in the 62nd percentile.
None of this means Pagán will come cheap. If he passed on $10 million for 2027, then a one-year deal would likely need to beat that, and a multi-year contract would have to clear it by even more. But the upside is real, and the Mariners have enough reason to push a little beyond their comfort zone.
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