The Seattle Mariners have a Bryce Miller decision sitting in front of them, and it’s not a simple yes-or-no checkmark.
The right-hander is set to remain under contract with Seattle for the 2027 season, but the real question is what the team wants that arrangement to cost. Miller was arbitration-eligible for the first time heading into 2026, and while those cases usually get settled before a hearing, the Mariners and Miller initially headed toward that route.
Instead, the two sides landed on a different kind of deal. Miller avoided arbitration in 2026 and signed for $2.4 million, with a team option for 2027 worth nearly $6.1 million.
That option is where the wrinkle comes in. If Seattle picks it up, Miller gets about $6.1 million in 2027. If the Mariners turn it down, he still stays with the club but goes back through arbitration, with eligibility again in 2028 and 2029.
There’s a straightforward argument for declining the option. Miller’s 2026 season didn’t go well. He was injured at the start of the year and then struggled badly over the final three months, finishing 4-10 with a 4.17 ERA.
From a pure payroll standpoint, Seattle would almost certainly pay less by declining the option and working out a new number with him as an arbitration-eligible player. And that matters in a world where every dollar can be redirected somewhere else on a roster that still has needs, especially if a salary cap eventually becomes part of the equation.
The long-term savings could be even more meaningful. Arbitration salaries tend to build on themselves, so the number in 2027 can affect what follows in later years.
In one hypothetical, a $6.1 million salary this year could grow into $8.1 million in 2028 and $10.1 million in 2029, for nearly $25 million over three seasons. In another hypothetical, declining the option and paying Miller $4 million this year, then $6 million in 2028 and $8 million in 2029, would total $18 million.
That would save roughly $7 million across those three years.
Still, the case for exercising the option is just as clear in its own way. Seattle would be making a call about whether it wants to risk bothering an important pitcher over what amounts to a relatively small amount of money over the next few seasons.
That’s the calculation the Mariners have to make.
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