The Seattle Mariners may be headed into an offseason where the cleanest path forward is also the hardest one to pull off.
After finishing 76-86 and missing the playoffs a year after reaching the American League Championship Series, the Mariners have obvious work to do. The offense lagged near the bottom of the league in multiple categories, the bullpen faded in the second half, and the rotation slipped. Between a new manager and roster turnover, a re-shuffling of the deck is coming.
One of the biggest questions is whether Seattle should use its starting pitching depth to bring in younger talent. Logan Gilbert is entering the final year of his contract.
George Kirby has two years left. Emerson Hancock and Bryce Miller could also be names in the conversation if the Mariners decide a trade is the best way to restock.
It is not a move anyone would make lightly, but it may be the sort of decision that keeps the machine moving. The Milwaukee Brewers have shown how that can work, dealing stars before free agency and still staying on track. Josh Hader, Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta all came up as examples of that approach.
Still, even if Seattle wanted to take that route, the timing is ugly.
ESPN’s Buster Olney said a looming labor freeze could make it especially difficult to deal for a starter this winter.
"It's going to be an awful time in November to actually execute trades because of the labor situation, because of the uncertainty. What's coming out the other side?
And I was looking at George Kirby today, for example. He, under the current rules, he isn't eligible for free agency until after 2028.
Well, what if the rules change? What if there's free agency after five years?
And I can tell you this from talking with general managers, you know, they're saying if you're discussing a trade for someone like Kirby early in November, you don't know what you're paying for. Because you don't know if the first two weeks of the 2027 season are going to be lost. You don't know if the first two months, you don't know if the season's going to be lost.
And I've heard a range of predictions from people within baseball, and that makes it really, really difficult to assess value. What is George Kirby's value if you wind up losing a lot of next season?
Can you replicate that value? I think it's going to greatly complicate trades.
And there might be, you know, very specific players: cheap relievers, or Tarik Skubal. You know, he might be an outlier as a market of one, the best free agent available, where they might be able to conduct business in November."
The problem, as Olney laid out, is uncertainty. General managers may be hesitant to set a price on a player like Kirby when they do not know what the next CBA will look like, or even how much of the next season might exist.
The current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on Dec. 1 at 11:59 p.m. ET.
After that, the owners are expected to lock out the players on Dec. 2, freezing business. The fight over a salary cap and salary floor sits at the center of the dispute, but the ripple effects go beyond that.
Free agency rules, service-time clocks and the value of future seasons could all become part of the equation.
For Seattle, that means a winter that already looked complicated may get even messier.
In Other News...
Mariners May Be Bracing For A Randy Arozarena Decision
The Mariners are expected to make Randy Arozarena a qualifying offer worth $23.15 million for 2027, a move that gives them a chance to keep one of their more dynamic bats while also setting up a possible compensation pick if he walks. Given the way the market is shaping up, it would not be a surprise if Seattle is willing to spend a little more to replace him, even if the front office ultimately has to balance that against a broader need to keep building around the roster.
Seattles challenge is that the free-agent hitting market does not offer many clean substitutes, which is why the club could end up looking beyond the obvious one-for-one replacement and leaning harder into pitching upgrades instead. For now, the Mariners seem to be preparing for a split with Arozarena, with the real question being whether they choose to chase a high-end bat or redirect that money into the arms they may need even more. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Could Soon Face Arozarena Decision They May Regret
Randy Arozarenas future in Seattle is already shaping up as one of the bigger offseason decisions hanging over the Mariners. The two-time All-Star outfielder is nearing free agency, and his strong 2026 performance has only widened the market around him, with clubs looking for an impact bat and a player who has already shown he can handle the spotlight.
Toronto has emerged as a particularly logical suitor, while the Yankees and Red Sox could also be in the mix if Arozarena reaches the open market. For the Mariners, the question is less about whether there will be interest and more about how far they want to go to keep him, because letting a player of his caliber walk would leave Seattle trying to replace production and, at best, sorting through the draft-pick compensation that comes back the other way. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Search Just Took A Turn Fans Will Have Opinions On
The Mariners search for a new manager has reportedly taken an interesting turn, with Jon Heyman of The New York Post reporting that the club has shown interest in Rocco Baldelli for its vacant job. Baldelli would bring some real name recognition to the mix after winning American League Manager of the Year in 2019, and he has been around winning operations lately, spending last season as a special advisor to Dodgers baseball operations chief Andrew Friedman.
For Seattle, the appeal is pretty easy to see. Baldelli has already run a clubhouse in Minnesota and spent seven years managing the Twins, giving him the kind of experience teams usually want when they start narrowing down a search. His track record there included postseason success and division titles, which is the sort of resume that can make a candidate stand out quickly even before the rest of a search has fully played out. [Read more 🡒]