Randy Arozarena has given the Mariners a clear answer on one front and a messy one on another.
On Sunday afternoon, he hammered two more home runs in a loss to the Athletics, pushing his season line to 25 homers and 75 RBIs. The All-Star left fielder is hitting .276 with 22 stolen bases, an .849 OPS and a 144 OPS+. On a Seattle club that has badly underdelivered at the plate, he has been the offense’s brightest spot - and it isn’t close.
That’s why the looming free-agent decision matters so much. Arozarena is set to hit the market after the season, and he’s going to be paid. The real question is whether the Mariners should be the team to make that commitment.
The easiest part of the equation is the qualifying offer. That should be a no-brainer for Seattle.
As Buster Olney of ESPN recently noted, the Mariners need to extend Arozarena the one-year qualifying offer worth about $22 million. If he takes it, he stays.
If he declines and signs elsewhere, Seattle gets a high draft pick in return. Either way, the club gets value.
The tougher debate starts after that.
There’s a strong argument for trying to keep Arozarena beyond the qualifying offer. Seattle’s offense has been weak, and it would likely get worse without him.
Production like .276 batting and an .849 OPS doesn’t show up every day, and the Mariners need more juice in the lineup. He also brings a layer of electricity that this team has often lacked.
Before his hamstring injury in mid-June, he had stolen 19 bases; since then, he has only three. If he gets back to full health, there’s a chance he can again be a real two-way threat.
But the reasons to hesitate are real too.
There are concerns about his effort and his defense. There’s also the age factor, since he’ll be 32 when the 2027 season begins.
And then there’s the contract itself. A three-year deal covering ages 32, 33 and 34 might make sense.
A five-year commitment that runs through age 36 is a much harder sell, especially if the defensive value fades and he eventually becomes a DH-only type. The leadership piece is part of the conversation too.
He’s not viewed as a bad teammate or a bad guy, but he does keep to himself, and that matters when a team is deciding whether to pay big money.
There’s also a philosophical wrinkle here. Mariners fans often look at clubs like the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays and wonder why Seattle can’t operate with that kind of efficiency. If the Mariners want to think like those teams, those teams would probably let Arozarena walk because of the same questions.
The money situation adds another layer.
No one knows what Major League Baseball’s financial landscape will look like in 2027, because the possibility of a salary cap remains unresolved. That uncertainty could reshape everything.
Even so, the Mariners do have some major money coming off the books. Arozarena ($16 million), JP Crawford ($12 million), Victor Robles ($5 million), Luis Castillo ($24 million), Rob Refsnyder ($6.25 million), and Mitch Garver ($2 million) are all set to come off the payroll in the offseason, along with whatever the M’s assumed on Taylor Ward’s contract when they acquired him at the trade deadline.
Altogether, that’s about $70 million.
But that number won’t stay that high for long. Josh Naylor’s salary rises by $6 million next year, Cal Raleigh’s by $1 million, Colt Emerson’s by $1 million, Seranthony Dominguez will make $10.5 million next season, and Andres Munoz gets a $2 million bump.
That takes the figure down to $49.5 million before arbitration hits. And arbitration figures to be a big deal, with raises expected for Logan Gilbert, George Kirby and Bryan Woo, plus Gabe Speier, Bryce Miller, Brendan Donovan, Jose Ferrer, Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley and Eduard Bazardo.
Some of those names may not even be in the picture by then, but the point stands: that remaining money is going to shrink fast.
So the Mariners are staring at a familiar offseason puzzle. Do they spend a meaningful chunk of their remaining flexibility to keep Arozarena, knowing there are still plenty of holes to fill?
Do they move money elsewhere to make room? Does a new labor agreement force their hand?
If Arozarena doesn’t return, the internal path is at least somewhat visible. Michael Arroyo could have the inside track in left field. Another option would be to sign a third baseman and move Donovan to left field, assuming he’s healthy.
Seattle’s next game comes Monday against the Los Angeles Angels at 6:38 p.m. PT. The Mariners enter at 70-80.
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