Mariners Face A J.P. Crawford Reunion Problem This Offseason

Jim Bowden's financial forecast casts doubt on the Mariners' ability to bring J.P. Crawford back this offseason, despite his expressed interest in finishing his career in Seattle.

J.P. Crawford’s next contract could be the thing that shuts the door on a Mariners reunion.

Seattle still has more pressing business this offseason - a big bat, an impact reliever, and probably some bench help, too - and the club should at least keep the possibility of bringing Crawford back alive if he’s serious about becoming a utility infielder. But Jim Bowden’s latest projection makes that much harder to envision.

Bowden of The Athletic has Crawford ranked 38th among his top 40 free agents, and he projects the veteran infielder for two years and $20 million. That kind of deal wouldn’t exactly line up with a return to Seattle after Crawford and the Mariners completed a five-year, $51 million contract this season. Even if the club has as much as $30-40 million available for next year’s payroll, giving a quarter or even a third of that to Crawford would be a rough way to allocate resources.

The 31-year-old just turned in the least productive season of his eight years with the Mariners, appearing in 116 games and finishing with 0.9 rWAR. His move to third base, made to make room for Colt Emerson, was a thoughtful one, but it didn’t really answer the lingering concerns about his range or his arm.

Still, there’s enough there to understand why another club could see him as more than a depth piece.

Crawford can still work counts and get on base. His .335 OBP this season was close to his career .340 mark, and he closed the year with a .363 OBP in September.

On the defensive side, there’s at least a chance more arm strength comes back if his shoulder improves over the winter. He said his shoulder was compromised from day one this year and that he played more than half the season with one good arm.

Bowden linked Crawford to the St. Louis Cardinals and Minnesota Twins, and both fits make sense. Each team has a need for a left-handed hitter at third base, and both lineups lean young enough that Crawford’s veteran presence could matter.

And then there’s Crawford’s own history with Seattle. He has long talked about wanting to finish his career as a Mariner, and that has to remain part of the conversation.

The Mariners should be open to that if the price lines up, especially if he’s coming back as a platoon infielder who can handle all four infield spots. That could work, particularly if it allows Brendan Donovan to spend more time in the outfield.

But the number has to be right, and Bowden’s projection is not that number. A one-year deal in the seven-figure range feels a lot more realistic for Seattle.

If Crawford can land something closer to that, he should take it. And if he does, then the Mariners reunion is probably over for good.

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