Randy Arozarena has spent the last few weeks making a strong case for himself, and the Seattle Mariners have some real decisions to sort through once the season ends.
The outfielder, who was named an All-Star for the second straight year, has been one of the few steady sources of offense on a club that has struggled to score. In this series against the Boston Red Sox, he has gone 5-for-10 with two home runs, seven RBIs and four runs scored.
For the season, he’s up to 22 homers, 65 RBIs and 20 steals. On a Mariners team sitting at 65-74, that makes him their most productive bat.
That production is coming at an interesting time. Arozarena is headed for free agency after the season, and he’ll turn 32 in February. He has now put together six straight 20/20 seasons, which only adds to the uncertainty around what kind of market he’ll find this winter.
For Seattle, the cleanest path may be the qualifying offer. That one-year deal is worth a little more than $22 million.
If the Mariners choose not to extend it, Arozarena can walk into free agency with no strings attached. If they do offer it, he can either take it and return to Seattle on that one-year salary or decline it and enter the market with draft-pick compensation attached for any team that signs him.
That compensation matters. Teams are often hesitant to surrender a high draft pick, and that tends to drag down a player’s market.
The qualifying offer could also be part of a changing landscape, with the system potentially on the table in the next collective bargaining agreement fight on Dec. 1.
From Seattle’s point of view, the move makes sense on paper. If Arozarena accepts, the Mariners keep a needed middle-of-the-order bat for a club that has been thin offensively.
If he turns it down and signs elsewhere, they collect a valuable draft pick. The organization has not used the qualifying offer on Mitch Haniger or Teoscar Hernandez in the last five years, though, so it would not be a sure thing.
If the Mariners do want to keep him beyond that, the price likely climbs well past what they’d be comfortable with. Arozarena appears positioned to land at least $100 million this winter, with possibilities ranging from three years and $100 million to four years and $100 million or even more.
There’s even a chance a fifth year shows up in the form of an option. Seattle, though, does not seem like a likely player at that level.
The reason is simple enough: a deal in that neighborhood would be the largest free-agent contract this front office has ever given a hitter. It would also mean taking on Arozarena’s age-32 through age-35 or age-36 seasons, right as questions linger about his athleticism, effort and defense.
If he leaves, the market could make plenty of sense in the American League East. Arozarena has already shown he can handle that division during his time with the Tampa Bay Rays, and there are clubs with both need and money.
The Blue Jays have Nathan Lukes, Addison Barger, Brett Bateman and Jesus Sanchez as possible outfield options for next year, and none of them are right-handed. Toronto also has money available with Kevin Gausman, Jeff Hoffman and George Springer coming off the books.
The Red Sox are in a similar spot. Their outfield and DH mix includes Roman Anthony, Wilyer Abreu, Jarren Duran and Masataka Yoshida, and that group also lacks a right-handed bat. Boston has spending power, though it would likely need to clear a roster spot to make a run at Arozarena.
Elsewhere, the Dodgers are always worth watching, even with Mookie Betts, Hernandez, Kyle Tucker and Tommy Edman already in place. The Yankees could also be in the mix if Trent Grisham leaves, especially if they want another bat alongside Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, though Spencer Jones is part of that picture too.
If Arozarena does not come back to Seattle, the Mariners’ outfield picture gets a lot murkier. Victor Robles is also a free agent, while Julio Rodriguez and Dominic Canzone are locked in.
Lazaro Montes is an option, though he may fit better at designated hitter. Michael Arroyo could play left field, but he remains a work in progress there.
Brendan Donovan could also return to the outfield if the Mariners solve third base through free agency or trade.
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