The Mariners enter the second half at 48-49, a mark that leaves them with their worst record through 97 games since 39-58 in 2019. Even so, the outside view of this club hasn’t exactly cratered. FanGraphs still has Seattle with the second-best odds to represent the AL in the World Series, and The Athletic lists the Mariners among just seven teams that best fit the profile of a champion.
That split tells the story. The roster still has talent.
Injuries have taken a toll. Cal Raleigh has been a poor imitation of the real Cal Raleigh.
And with the Aug. 3 trade deadline approaching, the Mariners have both clear needs and a prospect pool deep enough to create real options.
They could use relief help. They could also use a right-handed bat, preferably one that can handle lefties. At the same time, they have a few prospects whose value may be highest right now, and a pair of arms who look too important to move.
Jonny Farmelo is the first name that makes sense as a trade chip. The 21-year-old outfielder opened the year slowly with High-A Everett, but he found his stride in May and then broke out in June, when he hit .309 with a 1.041 OPS and 164 wRC+.
That surge has carried into July, and MLB Pipeline has pushed him from No. 78 in its preseason rankings to No. 64.
The talent is obvious, which is why Seattle took him 29th in the 2023 draft. But the concern here is durability.
Injury problems have limited Farmelo to 75 total games over the last two seasons, and that makes the sell-high argument hard to ignore. If the Mariners decide to deal from the top of the system, he’s the kind of player who could bring back a useful major league piece now.
Felnin Celesten is in a similar bucket. The 20-year-old shortstop is ranked No. 71 in MLB Pipeline’s top 100, lowest among Seattle’s prospects on that list, but his season has been excellent. He’s batting .310 with a .932 OPS and 138 wRC+, and at one point he ripped off a 25-game hit streak that finished just three games short of the Northwest League record.
Celesten also carries a $4.7 million singing bonus from 2023, the largest the Mariners have ever given an international player. Still, the case for moving him comes down to the same basic logic as Farmelo: there’s injury risk, there’s value in selling high, and there’s a crowded path in Seattle. He’s viewed by many as the organization’s best infield defender behind Colt Emerson, but Emerson is effectively locked in as the long-term shortstop, which leaves Celesten’s route to the majors in Seattle murky.
The untouchable side of the ledger starts with Kade Anderson. The left-hander has been dominant in his first year of pro ball, leading all minor league pitchers with a 1.36 ERA and a 0.688 WHIP while striking out 108 in 72.2 innings for Double-A Arkansas. MLB Pipeline now lists him as the top pitching prospect in baseball, and the numbers back it up.
Anderson got the opening inning for the American League in last Sunday’s Futures Game and needed only 10 pitches to work through it, allowing just a bloop single. Triple-A Tacoma is next, but probably not for long. The expectation is that bigger things are coming quickly, and the recently-turned 22-year-old should be in Seattle by Sept. 1 at the latest.
Ryan Sloan belongs in the same untouchable conversation. Anderson may be the more polished pitcher right now, but Sloan is viewed by many as having the higher ceiling, and Baseball America ranks him as the top pitching prospect in baseball. That alone has sparked plenty of debate over which arm is better, which is exactly the sort of “problem” the Mariners can live with.
Sloan has been more uneven statistically, posting a 4.04 ERA and a 1.187 WHIP with 77 strikeouts in 62.1 innings at Double-A Arkansas. But he has also shown a knack for showing up when the stage gets bigger, including the late-March Spring Breakout game against the Brewers and the Futures Game. He could reach the Mariners this season, though there’s also a chance the team keeps him in place until next year to give him more development time.
In Other News...
Mariners Just Got An Injury Update That Changes The Deadline Mood
Brendan Donovans rehab assignment has moved to Tacoma, a sign the Mariners are getting closer to adding another useful piece at a time when every roster decision feels tied to the deadline. Donovan had already resumed playing in the Arizona Complex League, and the expectation now is that his activation conversation is still about 10 days away, which gives Seattle a little more time to sort out how he fits once he is ready.
Rob Refsnyder also has started his own rehab work with Tacoma after being out since June 26, adding another veteran bat to the list of moving parts. And while the big-league club waits on those reinforcements, the farm keeps producing small reminders of why the organization likes its depth, with Lazaro Montes launching his first homer for Tacoma as the Rainiers continue to be a busy stop on the way back to Seattle. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Mets Trade Buzz Comes Down To One Risky Question
The Mariners and Mets look like the kind of clubs that should line up neatly in a trade conversation: Seattle wants help on the right side of the plate and in the bullpen, while New York has made clear it is open for business. One name at the center of the buzz is Luke Weaver, a controllable late-inning reliever who has put together a 2.03 ERA across 40 innings and would fit a contender trying to shorten games in October.
Building an actual deal, though, is where the easy part ends. Seattle has to decide how far it wants to go with its prospect capital, and New York has to find a return that feels substantial enough to justify moving a useful arm. Luis Castillo has also surfaced as a possible starting point for Seattle if the talks shift toward pitching, but his salary complicates the picture and makes the whole framework harder to pull off without more pieces involved. [Read more 🡒]
Former Mariners Outfielder Finally Reached A Breaking Point In Oakland
Cade Marlowes patience in Oakland ran out this week, as the former Mariners outfielder used the opt-out in his minor league deal and moved on as a free agent. It was a notable turn for a player who had put together a strong Triple-A season and kept himself in the conversation, even as he tried to work his way back to the majors.
For Seattle fans, Marlowes path still carries some familiarity. He got into 42 big league games over two seasons with the Mariners before being designated for assignment and eventually choosing free agency, and his latest stop now leaves him searching again for a clearer route back to the majors. [Read more 🡒]