The Seattle Mariners are staring at a pivotal winter, and it comes with a lockout looming in just over a month. After finishing 76-86 and missing the playoffs, this roster is headed for serious turnover.
A new manager is coming. So is a revamped coaching staff. And beyond that, the Mariners are going to be forced into changes all over the roster through trades, free agency, demotions and prospect promotions.
That’s the backdrop for a very real exercise: which members of the 2026 Mariners are most likely gone by 2027?
JP Crawford, for all the uncertainty around his free agency, is not on that list. Jhonny Pereda isn’t either.
Hoby Milner, Weston Wilson and Michael Rucker were also left out, even though their cases feel straightforward. The focus here is on the names that fit the bigger picture in Seattle.
Taylor Ward looks like the easiest call. He’s a free agent, he’s about to turn 33, and his season was derailed by leg issues.
He hit .125 in 32 games and became the latest right-handed platoon option that just didn’t work out. He’ll keep playing somewhere, just not in Seattle.
Randy Arozarena is a different kind of departure, but the end point feels the same. He’s 31 and headed for 32, and after two-plus strong seasons in Seattle plus two All-Star selections, his run here should be remembered well.
Still, the Mariners are not likely to commit major money to a 32-year-old outfielder who comes with questions about defense, effort and leadership. The expectation is a qualifying offer, a rejection, a draft pick in return and a tribute video the next time he comes back to T-Mobile Park.
Victor Robles could technically return, but the odds sound slim. His $9 million team option is expected to be declined, and Seattle already has an outfield group that includes Brendan Donovan, Michael Arroyo, Laz Montes, Julio Rodriguez and Dom Canzone, with Luke Raley and other offseason additions still in the mix. Robles gave the Mariners a spark in 2024, but injuries took too much out of his 2025 and 2026 seasons, and that has pushed him toward free agency.
Raley himself is another name who may be on the move, which says plenty about how much the outfield could change. He’s the kind of player teams like to have when he’s healthy: power, flexibility and the ability to handle all three outfield spots.
The problem is that Seattle hasn’t gotten enough of him. He hit 22 home runs and helped drive the offense in 2024, then played only 73 games in 2025 and hit .202.
In 2026, he launched 15 homers in what was basically the first half of the season before an arm injury shut him down. With arbitration looming and a salary around $3 million, the Mariners could non-tender him or keep him and trade him, but the fit feels crowded with Montes and Canzone already offering similar value.
The biggest swing comes with George Kirby. That’s the toughest decision on the board.
He still has two years of team control, but if Seattle doesn’t see a path to a long-term deal, the organization should listen on the trade market. The example of the Milwaukee Brewers shows how moving elite pitchers doesn’t have to break a franchise.
The Mariners need a talent infusion, and a pitcher is the clearest way to get one.
The lockout makes moving Logan Gilbert harder, since he has only one year of control left. Kade Anderson and Bryan Woo are not expected to go anywhere.
Bryce Miller, in this view, wouldn’t bring back the kind of return that truly changes the roster. Emerson Hancock could bring a solid package, but Kirby is the one most likely to deliver the biggest haul.
In Other News...
Randy Arozarena Just Gave Mariners Fans Another Reason To Worry
Randy Arozarena is already giving Mariners fans something to watch this winter, and it has little to do with what he did in Seattle after arriving from Tampa Bay. The outfielder turned in a strong season and has positioned himself as one of the more attractive names in free agency, which is exactly why the Mariners are expected to keep the door open with a qualifying offer even as the larger question around his future starts to take shape.
Arozarena was back in Tampa Bay for the Rays recent pennant-clinching win, and the scene only added to the sense that this could get complicated for Seattle. Former teammate Junior Caminero sent a home run celebration in his direction, a reminder of how much history Arozarena still has there, and why the Mariners may have to brace for the possibility that this stop becomes a brief one. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Fans Have Every Reason To Fear This Payroll Lesson
Jim Bowdens latest comments land at a familiar pressure point for Mariners fans: the uneasy gap between a club that wants to contend and an ownership group that has long preached restraint. Bowden said some executives around the game are taking the success of small-market teams in October as proof that payroll does not need to keep climbing, a line of thinking that matters in Seattle because the Mariners have tried to thread the needle between developing talent and spending just enough to stay in the mix.
The concern gets sharper with the next Collective Bargaining Agreement looming, since Bowden also said two general managers have weighed lowering payroll depending on where a salary floor lands. John Stanton has made his preference clear in broad terms, favoring investment in younger players over bigger commitments to older stars, and Seattles payroll has stayed relatively flat even with recent increases. For a fan base that has heard plenty about sustainability, the fear is that the lesson being drawn around the league could make it harder, not easier, for the Mariners to push past the middle. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Old Trade Is Suddenly Stirring Up Value Debate Again
A trade that felt pretty straightforward at the time is getting another look now, because the Mariners December 2018 deal for Edwin Encarnacion has become part of a bigger value conversation again. Seattle got the veteran slugger for salary relief and a short burst of production, but the transaction has generally been remembered as one with limited long-term impact for the club.
What has renewed the interest is the way two of the names involved have resurfaced in the 2026 playoffs. Yandy Daz, one of the players included in that swap, has been a postseason standout, while Jake Bauers has also delivered big October value for another contender. For Mariners fans, it is the kind of old transaction that invites a fresh look at what was given up, what was gained, and how different a deal can look once the postseason spotlight hits. [Read more 🡒]