MLB’s next labor fight could reshape the sport in a big way, and the Seattle Mariners would feel it from both sides.
The league is expected to push a new collective bargaining proposal that includes a salary floor of $171.2 million and a salary cap of $245.3 million, according to The Athletic. The players would get 50 percent of league revenue.
But there are still major unanswered questions around what actually counts in those totals, including whether the figures cover only players on the major league roster or also minor league salaries and draft bonuses. There’s also the issue of what qualifies as revenue, since teams like the Braves generate money from areas around their ballpark, and players would almost certainly want that included.
The timing matters too. MLB’s current CBA expires on Dec. 1, and a lockout is widely expected after that.
The last one, in 2021, barely touched the 2022 season. This time, though, the fight over a cap system could threaten part or even all of the 2027 season.
For Seattle, the broad outline of a cap-and-floor world comes with real advantages. The Mariners are already operating in that spending range, so they wouldn’t need to scramble to slash payroll or suddenly spend far beyond their comfort zone just to stay compliant.
And if eight teams - the Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, Mets, Phillies and Padres - are forced to cut back, Seattle wouldn’t have to keep staring up at an even taller financial wall. That kind of reset could also make the free-agent market more reachable for the Mariners, since elite talent wouldn’t be able to pile into the same few places every winter.
There’s another possible upside for Seattle if the system starts rewarding teams that draft and develop well. The article points to the NBA-style idea of allowing clubs to keep their own players longer than outside free agents, and MLB appears to be moving in that direction.
For a franchise that would like to turn homegrown talent into a real competitive advantage, that would matter. If the Mariners keep producing and developing well, they could have a better shot at holding onto their own players and making Seattle a more appealing long-term destination.
But the downside is just as real. If the biggest spenders come down, other clubs will almost certainly rise up, including teams like the A’s, White Sox, Rays and Guardians.
That would flatten the league, create more capable teams and leave fewer easy nights on the schedule. A tighter financial system also means you still won’t be able to keep everybody.
The Seahawks had to let Tyler Lockett go at one point, and they had to let Riq Woolen and Coby Bryant go this offseason. The same basic reality would apply here: even in a capped system, tough choices are unavoidable.
The question becomes whether Seattle could keep players like Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Colt Emerson and JP Crawford.
There’s also the possibility that clubs would move players earlier if they don’t think they can extend them, which could lead to more trades before free agency or even sign-and-trade situations. The article points to Anthony Davis being dealt from the New Orleans Pelicans to the Los Angeles Lakers as the kind of move that could become more common. For the Mariners, that would mean less certainty and potentially less time with the homegrown players fans have grown attached to.
For players at the top, the change would almost certainly mean less money. The next wave of mega-deals, including $700 million contracts that pay $70 million per year, could disappear. On the other hand, a more spread-out system could leave more money available for more players across the league.
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