The panic around the Mariners has gotten louder by the day, but the argument that their contention window is slamming shut feels a lot bigger than one awful season.
That doesn’t mean the criticism isn’t earned. It is.
This year has been a disaster, and the list of reasons is long: injuries, stars who didn’t perform, bad decisions, and plenty of poor luck along the way. But the leap from “terrible season” to “the window is over” is still too far for a roster that, not long ago, looked like one of the better teams in baseball.
The expectations coming into 2026 were massive for a reason. Around the sport, plenty of people saw Seattle as a legitimate threat, with MLB.com even picking the Mariners to win the AL pennant.
That optimism wasn’t just about last October, when they came within eight outs of their first World Series berth. It was also built on years of steady winning.
From 2021 through 2025, the Mariners were one of only four teams in Major League Baseball to win at least 85 games every season. That kind of consistency naturally created the belief that the organization’s patient build was about to pay off in a real way. Instead, the season collapsed in a way that has left people talking as if the entire thing has to be torn down.
There’s no question the conversation has turned dark. National voices, local coverage, and podcast discussion have all gone there, and it’s easy to understand why.
The Mariners have only two playoff appearances in 11 seasons under Jerry Dipoto, and Randy Arozarena is almost certainly headed for free agency after being the team’s best and most reliable offensive threat this year. Still, that doesn’t make this a full-on closing of the book.
It’s one brutal year, not a multi-year fade.
That matters. This is the same core that won 85-plus games in each of the last five seasons.
Six months ago, this group was being praised as one of the best teams in baseball. What happened this year was ugly, but it was also unusually complete in how much went wrong.
The good news for Seattle is that there are still real reasons to think the offense can rebound in 2027. Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez both had the worst seasons of their careers, but neither situation looks like a permanent decline. Raleigh has started finding his stroke again lately, and Rodríguez will have a full offseason to recover from the concussion that clearly affected his production.
There were also encouraging signs from Dominic Canzone and Cole Young, who both established themselves as important parts of the lineup. Add in the next wave of young hitters - Colt Emerson, Lazaro Montes and Michael Arroyo - and there’s a path for improvement, even if each of them still has work to do. More time against big-league pitching should help.
Arozarena’s exit would sting, but it’s worth remembering that this was also a contract year breakout for him. He’s set to get paid based on this season, and there’s no guarantee the offensive version Seattle saw this year is the one that shows up everywhere else going forward. The Mariners will miss the production, but the loss doesn’t automatically flatten the roster’s future.
The pitching side still gives them a foundation, too. The rotation slipped this season, but this is the same group that led the majors in several categories in 2024 with Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo.
Not every arm has to rebound for the staff to look stronger again. Emerson Hancock finally pitched like the player the Mariners thought they drafted, Kade Anderson is now in the mix, and Ryan Sloan adds more upside to the picture.
The bullpen is the area that most clearly needs help, especially if Matt Brash isn’t back and healthy. Even there, though, the Mariners have a track record of getting value out of pitching reclamation projects. They also have the money and trade capital to make serious changes this winter, whether that means focusing on the bullpen or making broader upgrades.
That’s why this doesn’t look like the kind of situation the Astros faced when their own core started aging and breaking down. Seattle isn’t there. This feels more like a team that needs adjustments, better health, and more of its key players performing closer to their level.
The season has been a wreck. The frustration is real. But the idea that the Mariners are already out of time goes too far.
In Other News...
Mariners Fans Need To Confront One Big Lazaro Montes Concern
Lazaro Montes has already given Mariners fans a reason to dream, mostly because of the kind of power that can change the feel of a game in one swing. The highly regarded position player prospect has made a name for himself with big-time pop, including the longest home run at T-Mobile Park in the Statcast era, and that kind of raw strength is exactly why his rise in the system has drawn so much attention.
The question hanging over Montes is whether the rest of his profile will catch up enough to let that power play consistently at the next level. His contact issues, especially against fastballs and left-handed pitching, have kept him from fully unlocking that ceiling so far, even as he continues to show real promise. Still, the expectation is that hell be part of Seattles roster next season, which means the Mariners may soon find out just how much room there is for growth. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Just Got Another Brutal Reminder Of What This Season Became
A season that once looked like it might carry the Mariners back into October instead became another long lesson in how quickly expectations can slip away. Seattles promising start faded under the weight of too little offense, shaky defense and late-game failures, the same issues that kept showing up as the standings tightened and the margins got smaller.
ESPNs David Schoenfield reflected that frustration in a harsh assessment of the clubs year, and it landed as just another reminder of where things stand in Seattle. The scrutiny is not only on the roster, either, with Dan Wilson expected to be replaced and Jerry Dipoto still carrying the burden of having reached the playoffs only twice in 11 seasons as president of baseball operations. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Just Learned The Cost Of Mistaking Continuity For Depth
When ESPN first sized up the Mariners offseason, the review looked encouraging enough, with an A-minus grade attached to a winter built around sensible moves like keeping Josh Naylor and adding Brendan Donovan. On paper, it felt like the kind of businesslike approach this front office prefers: preserve what works, plug a couple of holes, and trust the core to carry the rest.
By September, though, the grade had plunged to an F, a harsh reflection of how quickly the season unraveled on multiple fronts. The Mariners pitching slipped, the offense disappeared, and even the defense stopped being a reliable backbone, exposing a roster that may have been talented but was not nearly deep enough to withstand a long stretch of trouble. [Read more 🡒]