Mariners Cannot Afford To Miss These Trade Deadline Warning Signs

As the trade deadline looms, the Mariners face tough decisions on potential targets whose recent cold streaks cast doubt on their viability.

The Mariners are running out of time before the August 3 trade deadline, but that doesn’t mean they should rush into the wrong move. Seattle needs right-handed bats and reliable relievers, sure. It just doesn’t need to get careless chasing names that look better on paper than they do right now.

That’s the trap with this market: some targets are heating up, like Taylor Ward, who shook off a rough May and June to post an .838 OPS in July. Mason Miller is another obvious draw, having been hotter than any reliever in MLB for almost a year now.

But the other side of the ledger matters just as much. If the Mariners are going to shop, they need to know which players have gone cold at exactly the wrong time.

Casey Schmitt is one of the more interesting names on the board, and the fit is easy to imagine. The Giants infielder/outfielder could slot into a Mariners trade concept, especially if Seattle is willing to deal Emerson Hancock.

Even so, Schmitt comes with real warning signs. He’s been swinging and missing plenty, drawing few walks, and his last 38 games have produced a .243/.270/.375 line with 31 strikeouts and only four walks.

The one number that still jumps out is his .323 average against lefties. If San Francisco asks for more than Hancock, that’s where the line should be drawn.

Willi Castro has been on Seattle’s radar for a while, and not long ago he looked like a clever deadline fit. That case has weakened.

The switch-hitter has hit just .196 this month with 21 strikeouts and three walks, and his road split now sits at a .640 OPS compared to .798 at home. He still brings versatility as a player who can cover the infield and outfield, but compared with other options, he belongs much closer to the back of the line.

Jorge Soler is another name that should make the Mariners pause. There’s buzz that the Angels could be open to anything at the deadline, which at least makes an AL West deal possible.

But Soler hasn’t done much to inspire confidence. He owns a .599 OPS against lefties and has been flat-out bad in July, hitting just .472 with no home runs in 14 games.

The memory of Atlanta landing him as an undervalued deadline piece in 2021 still lingers, but that was five years ago, and he hasn’t been a productive everyday hitter since 2024.

The caution extends to the bullpen, too. Riley O’Brien would make for a neat story if the Mariners brought him back.

He’s a local product, he pitched for Seattle in 2022, and this year he even made the All-Star Game. But the recent work is hard to ignore.

Over his last 20 appearances, he’s thrown 19.2 innings and given up 11 earned runs, 16 hits, 15 walks and six hit-by-pitches. Even the All-Star Game fastball that had everyone worried about Junior Caminero fits the larger picture: the velocity is there, and he can get ground balls, but the rest of the shutdown-reliever profile is missing.

Antonio Senzatela has followed a similar path. He was a fun early-season story after opening with an ERA around 1.00 through 15 appearances, a sharp turnaround from the 6.65 ERA he posted as a starter last season.

Since then, though, he’s been hit hard. In his last 16 appearances, he has an 8.00 ERA and has allowed 29 hits in just 18.0 innings.

Yes, he has a 2.39 ERA away from Coors Field, but the deeper numbers still point to the same issue: fastball velocity is the main thing that stands out. Seattle can do better.

Pete Fairbanks is the most striking example of why raw stuff alone doesn’t solve everything. The Marlins right-hander has elite velocity, averaging 97.3 mph, and his strikeout rate ranks among the top 10 percent of all pitchers.

Yet the results have been ugly. He owns a 7.42 ERA this season, and over his last 15 appearances that number has ballooned to 8.36, with five home runs and seven walks allowed.

Good stuff only goes so far if the strikes aren’t there and the ball keeps finding barrels.

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