The Seattle Mariners did plenty right in the 2025-26 offseason, but August has a way of exposing the cracks in any plan. With the club sitting eight games under .500 and 34 games left, three choices from that winter are looking especially costly now.
The biggest issue was the decision to bet heavily on regression not happening. Seattle came out of last season with the same starting rotation intact and locked Josh Naylor into the lineup on a $95 million deal, keeping him alongside Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez and Randy Arozarena.
The logic was easy to see at the time: maybe Raleigh wouldn’t repeat a 60-homer season, and maybe Julio’s 30-30, 6.6 rWAR year was more of a peak than a baseline. But the Mariners talked themselves into the idea that the drop-off wouldn’t be severe.
They leaned on the hope that Arozarena and Naylor would hold steady, that Cole Young and Colt Emerson would break out, and that Brendan Donovan would help carry the load.
That plan has not held. Seattle got 19.9 rWAR from that offensive core in 2025.
In 2026, that total is down to 6.1. Emerson’s breakout never came, with the article noting he wasn’t ready and was apparently injured as well.
The rotation has also been uneven, especially when Bryan Woo and George Kirby are pitching away from home.
There’s a strong argument that the Mariners should have spent the offseason refining what they had instead of trying to recreate it. A different approach might have made clear they needed a bigger swing, not just another version of the same roster.
Third base has become another glaring problem. If the Mariners want to defend the Donovan move, they can point out that it was supposed to be the major addition of the offseason.
It was a significant trade, and when he’s been on the field, he has been an important hitter. But Seattle has still gotten only 0.1 rWAR from third base, and Donovan’s defense there has been a problem every time the ball is hit his way.
The Mariners also didn’t find a better answer with Emerson or J.P. Crawford, both natural shortstops who never looked comfortable at the position.
One alternate version of the winter had Seattle landing Kazuma Okamoto instead, and that would have at least brought a playable third baseman with 26 home runs.
The bullpen makeover also stopped too soon. The trade for Jose A.
Ferrer has worked exactly as hoped, with Jerry Dipoto getting credit for a deal that has paid off. Harry Ford hasn’t been missed yet, and Ferrer’s 3.59 ERA doesn’t fully capture how valuable his left arm has been for Dan Wilson.
But beyond Ferrer and Cooper Criswell, the Mariners mostly stuck with the same run-it-back formula in the bullpen, and that came with real danger attached.
That risk has shown up in a hurry. Carlos Vargas has missed the entire season, while Criswell and Matt Brash have been out since June.
The result has been a bullpen full of unfamiliar names like Michael Rucker, Nick Davila and others who have cycled through Seattle’s relief mix. Since the All-Star break, that group has posted a 6.20 ERA.
In Other News...
Mariners Suddenly Have A Tough Bench Decision Waiting
Brock Rodden has given the Mariners something worth noticing in a very small sample, and he has done it in the kind of way that tends to stick with a bench coach. In six big league games, the rookie has hit .300, piled up three extra-base hits and shown the kind of defensive flexibility that makes a reserve infielder easier to carry on a roster that is always trying to squeeze value out of every spot.
The timing only sharpens the question, because Seattle is headed toward the return of J.P. Crawford from injury, which will force the club to sort out its reserve infield picture. Rodden has been more productive at the plate than Leo Rivas this season, and that creates a real choice rather than a simple numbers move, with the Mariners now weighing whether the hot hand and the versatility are enough to keep him around once Crawford is back. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Finally Make A Prospect Move Fans Have Been Waiting For
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Anderson, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2025 draft, has backed up the hype with the kind of minor league production that made his promotion feel overdue. The next step is a significant one, though, because his first major-league start will come with the Mariners still below .500 and in a spot where every outing can tilt the mood around the roster. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Are Finally Opening The Door For Kade Anderson
The Mariners are lining up Kade Anderson for his first big league start, setting him up to debut against the Cubs as the organization finally creates a path into the rotation. Seattle president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto had already signaled this was the plan, saying Anderson would get the call once a rotation spot opened and calling him the best starting pitcher in the minors.
To make room on the roster, the Mariners are moving Matt Brash to the 60-day injured list, a paperwork step that does not change Brashs return timeline. It is the kind of transaction that can get lost in the shuffle, but it also underscores how carefully Seattle has been managing the moment it wanted Anderson to arrive, and how much attention his debut will draw once he takes the mound. [Read more 🡒]