The Mariners come into this one with a mixed bag in hand: they just took two of three from the Cubs, but Sunday’s 19-2 loss was another brutal reminder that the floor can still drop out fast. Now they have to deal with a Phillies club riding a nine-game winning streak, and Seattle is putting Logan Gilbert back in the same role he’s handled before - the guy asked to put out the fire.
Gilbert has already done that sort of cleanup work this season. He started and won the day after Seattle’s 22-0 humiliation in Milwaukee, and the Mariners need that version of him again.
The challenge is a Philadelphia lineup that had his number last year, and the first priority is simple: get ahead. Gilbert got strike one on just seven of the 15 hitters he faced in that rough outing, and once the counts tilted, the inning spun out of control.
The second inning alone took 48 pitches, and Philadelphia strung together five straight hits to open it. Trea Turner later jumped on a slider that stayed up, J.T.
Realmuto did the same, and Gilbert eventually escaped.
That start ended with nine hits and six earned runs in two innings, the shortest outing of his career that wasn’t weather-related. His career ERA against Philadelphia now stands at 7.50.
If this matchup is going to look different, it has to start early. Gilbert needs strike one, shorter counts and faster outs.
When he falls behind, he’s forced over the plate, and that gives a disciplined Phillies lineup exactly the kind of time it wants.
The good news for Seattle is that Gilbert has a weapon that can play here: the splitter. It’s been nasty, and the numbers back that up.
Opponents have managed only a .190 xwOBA against it, and it has produced a 40.7 percent whiff rate. The catch is usage.
Gilbert throws it just 14.3 percent of the time. His four-seamer, meanwhile, has been hit harder, with a .360 xwOBA and a 49.7 percent hard-hit rate.
That matchup matters against Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. The plan should be clear enough: elevate with velocity to change their eye levels, then drop the splitter below the zone and make Philadelphia’s left-handed bats prove they can lay off.
There’s also a bigger warning sign in Gilbert’s recent form. He has allowed five home runs over his last four starts, and his 10.1 percent barrel rate is a career high. Against the Phillies, even a little bit of command drift or a pitch left over the plate could make for a short night.
Seattle’s task gets tougher because Zack Wheeler is on the mound for Philadelphia. Wheeler’s only start against the Mariners was a dominant one: eight innings, nine strikeouts, two hits allowed, and a 6-0 Phillies win. Gilbert was the Mariners starter that day.
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