The Mariners don’t have to make a Julio Rodríguez decision today, and that’s exactly why the conversation has started now.
Seattle is sitting in that strange stretch of the calendar where the season is over, the offseason hasn’t really begun, and everyone has time to chew on the same big question: what happens after the 2028 World Series, when the club has to decide whether to pick up Rodríguez’s option?
It’s a massive number, and it only gets bigger if Rodríguez keeps stacking honors. The option is currently worth $240 million over eight years because of his top-10 MVP finishes in 2022, 2023 and 2025.
If he adds another top-10 MVP finish in 2027 or 2028, that climbs to $260 million. If he wins an MVP in either of those seasons, it jumps to $280 million.
Back-to-back MVPs would turn it into a 10-year, $350 million option.
That option wouldn’t begin until after the 2029 season, which means it would cover at least his age-29 through age-36 seasons. If the Mariners passed on it, Rodríguez would then have a five-year player option worth $90 million. He would presumably turn that down and head into free agency.
A few years ago, this probably would have felt like a no-brainer. Rodríguez looked like the kind of player a franchise locks up without blinking. He won AL Rookie of the Year in 2022, finished in the top 10 in AL MVP voting in both 2022 and 2023, and piled up 11.8 rWAR across those seasons, seventh-best among position players.
But the shine has dulled some since then. Rodríguez’s 13.6 rWAR since 2024 ranks only tied for 19th among position players, and most of that value came from his 6.6-rWAR season last year.
In 2024, he was merely good. In 2026, he was closer to ordinary.
He did post a fifth straight 20-20 season, but that came with a 103 OPS+ and 2.8 rWAR.
The warning signs go beyond the slash line. His defense in center field has slipped enough to be legitimately concerning, and his strike-zone issues continue to stand out because he still hasn’t shown the kind of discipline that would make those shortcomings disappear.
Even with that, Rodríguez’s career résumé still belongs in rare company. He and only 10 other players have reached 25 rWAR by age 25.
That said, once production starts to taper off, there’s always the fear that it won’t come all the way back. Right now, that fear is hanging around Rodríguez.
Still, there’s a strong case for patience.
His production dropped sharply after he suffered a concussion in July, which naturally raises the question of whether he was fully healthy down the stretch. And only in the last month has it become clear how dysfunctional the clubhouse was under Dan Wilson. The Mariners are trying to address that by hiring their next manager.
Rodríguez also enters 2027 as a clear rebound candidate on offense. The bat speed is still there, and even a modest step forward in discipline could help his contact quality bounce back after it sagged in 2026.
His defensive decline may also prove to be a one-year issue. This was the first season in which both his DRS and OAA were below average.
If the Mariners eventually need to move him out of center field, that doesn’t have to be a problem. At 6-foot-4 and 228 pounds, a corner spot wouldn’t be some sort of demotion by default. And if Jonny Farmelo stays healthy, Seattle could have a true speedster and defensive standout ready to take over in center.
So when the time comes in 2028, it’s easy enough to picture Rodríguez still being a dynamic outfield star. At that point, the answer to whether he’s worth $240 million should be yes.
That number matches Robinson Canó’s record Mariners contract, which sounds intimidating until you remember the context. Canó was already past 30, and that deal was signed 13 years ago.
The market for stars has changed. These days, the going rate is closer to $35 million a year than $30 million, and by the time those option years would stretch toward 2037, inflation would make the average annual value look even more manageable.
If this season turns out to be more than a blip, then the Mariners will have a real front-office dilemma on their hands. Declining the option would mean risking the loss of Rodríguez, and that would be a hard ending to imagine after where things stood in 2022.
For now, though, the smart money is still on Seattle leaning toward yes when that decision finally arrives.
In Other News...
Emerson Hancock Gave Mariners Hope But One Concern Still Lingers
Emerson Hancock gave the Mariners a real reason to feel better about the back of their rotation in 2026. The right-hander put together a career-best 3.57 ERA and 2.7 bWAR while looking more like the pitcher Seattle hoped it was drafting, with a tick up in velocity and mechanical changes that helped his strikeout rate and made his fastball play better.
Still, the picture around Hancock is not fully settled, and that is where the caution comes in for Seattle. Some of the deeper indicators behind his breakthrough suggest the improvement may not be as sturdy as the surface results, and with George Kirby and Bryce Miller also in the mix, Hancocks long-term place in the rotation remains a question the Mariners have not quite answered. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Fans Can Dream On Elly De La Cruz But The Price Changes Everything
Elly De La Cruz is the kind of name that naturally gets Mariners fans talking, because a player with that blend of speed, power and star power would change the shape of a lineup in a hurry. The idea of Seattle making a run at the Cincinnati infielder also fits a familiar front-office question: when is it time to turn a deep prospect system into proven impact talent?
The hurdle, of course, is that De La Cruz is not the kind of player a club simply shops around and replaces. Any serious attempt would come with a steep price, and the Mariners would have to decide how much of their prospect depth they are willing to sacrifice for a centerpiece who could help now and for years to come. That is where the conversation shifts from fantasy fit to real roster-building risk, and it is why this one is more dream than easy solution. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Face Tough Payroll Calls Around Their Arbitration Class
The winter roster math is already coming into focus for the Mariners, and it starts with a deep arbitration class that will force the front office to weigh cost against familiarity. Fifteen players are eligible for salary arbitration after the 2026 season, giving Seattle a wide set of decisions to make as it sorts through tender candidates and tries to keep the roster flexible without stripping away too much proven depth.
MLB Trade Rumors has handed the club a useful starting point with salary projections for the group, which should sharpen the debate as tender day approaches. Some names are almost certain to draw extra scrutiny because of where they sit in the payroll picture, and the real challenge for Seattle is less about identifying who matters and more about deciding how much price it is willing to pay to keep that middle tier intact. [Read more 🡒]