Julio Rodríguez has always been the kind of hitter who can make a season feel like it’s about to turn at any moment. Usually, that surge comes later. His career track record says as much: a .739 first-half OPS against a .870 mark after the break, with the familiar late-July or early-August heater that has helped make him one of the game’s top center fielders.
But this season hasn’t followed that script. After a strong .899 OPS in May, there was reason to think Seattle might finally be getting the MVP-level version it has been waiting on.
Instead, Rodríguez hasn’t cleared an OPS of .700 in any month since. Rather than building momentum, he has been sliding the other direction.
That matters because he’s not the only Mariners bat under the microscope, but he is one of the biggest reasons the lineup still feels short of where it needs to be. Cal Raleigh has taken plenty of the heat for his own offensive drop-off, yet Rodríguez has his share of responsibility too.
His 108 OPS+ in 2026 is the lowest single-season figure of his five-year major league career, and even his recent uptick has been only modest. So far this August, he’s at a .729 OPS, well below his career August average of .882.
The deeper issue is that this doesn’t look like a simple case of a player being totally lost. Rodríguez’s bat speed remains elite, and the old tendencies - the chase, the whiff - are still there, just not to a dramatically worse degree than before.
His 21.9% strikeout rate this year is actually better than his career 23.8% mark. He’s also pulling the ball in the air 18.8% of the time, which is a career best.
The real red flag is how he’s choosing his swings. He has become more passive than he was last year, while also offering at fewer strikes and more pitches outside the zone.
That combination is a rough one, and it has made it harder for him to do damage when he does connect. The result shows up in the quality of contact, including a dip in average exit velocity.
There are still flashes of the old Julio in there. On Monday in the first game of the Phillies series, he launched a 109 mph home run against Zack Wheeler, the kind of blast that reminds everyone why he remains such a dangerous hitter when things click.
For Seattle, though, the timing is unforgiving. The Mariners’ postseason hopes are hanging by a thread, and if they’re going to have any real shot at October, they need Rodríguez at full strength. He’s the face of the franchise because on paper he’s still the club’s best player, even if the numbers haven’t always backed that up this year.
There was at least one encouraging moment after his rough misplay in a brutal loss to the Brewers, but the larger question remains the same: can Rodríguez get hot and stay hot long enough to matter for the rest of the season?
In Other News...
J.P. Crawfords Return Just Created A New Mariners Infield Debate
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Seattles latest shuffle also sent Leo Rivas to Tacoma while keeping rookie Brock Rodden in the majors, a sign the front office is still weighing how much it wants to lean on experience versus giving a younger player a longer look. Crawfords return settles one part of the equation, but it leaves the Mariners with a familiar late-season question: how much stability they want in the middle infield, and how much flexibility theyre willing to keep as they try to cover the rest of the way. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Suddenly Have A New Roster Problem Fans Can't Ignore
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Jhonathan Daz being outrighted to Triple-A Tacoma adds another wrinkle, and the depth chart talk does not stop there with prospect Ace Reese drawing attention in recent reports. Even the broader conversation around former Mariners reliever Trent Thornton and the possibility of a lockout affecting minor league games has only sharpened the sense that Seattle is trying to manage immediate needs while keeping one eye on the pipeline, because the roster churn may not be done yet. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Farm System Suddenly Has Three Names Fans Need To Watch
Ryan Sloan keeps making the Mariners farm system look deeper than it seemed a few months ago. The 20-year-old right-hander in Double-A just turned in one of the loudest outings in the organization, throwing five innings of one-hit ball, allowing one run, walking none and striking out 11. For a club that always has an eye on pitching development, performances like that tend to get attention quickly, especially when they come from a player young for the level.
Seattles system also has plenty going on elsewhere. Reese, the clubs 2026 first-round pick, has been productive in Single-A with a strong batting average and on-base profile, while High-A catcher Luke Stevenson has paired a lower batting average with real impact, including 18 home runs, 74 RBIs and a healthy walk rate. The three names give the Mariners a useful snapshot of why the prospect conversation has picked up again, even if each player still has a different next step to prove. [Read more 🡒]