George Kirby still throws strikes with the kind of precision that usually makes a pitcher hard to live with. The problem for the Mariners is that the strikes are becoming too easy to handle.
That’s the uncomfortable shift sitting at the center of Kirby’s season. His walk rate remains a strong 5.6 percent, so the zone-filling part of the job is intact.
But once he gets there, the damage has started to pile up. Opponents are hitting .285 against him, the highest average allowed by any qualified pitcher in baseball, and that’s a brutal number for someone whose identity has long been built on command.
The concern isn’t that Kirby has forgotten how to locate. It’s that hitters seem to know what’s coming.
The result is a pitcher who keeps winning the map but losing the fight. When batters swing at his pitches in the strike zone, they’re making contact 86.9 percent of the time.
That’s where the edge has disappeared.
The swing-and-miss just isn’t there the way it used to be. Kirby’s strikeout rate has dropped from 26.1 percent in 2025 to 19.9 percent this season, and his 21.6 percent whiff rate sits below the 25 percent league average. For a pitcher whose game was supposed to be built on premium velocity, pinpoint control and swing-and-miss, that’s a significant turn.
There is some evidence that the results have been harsher than the underlying numbers. Kirby’s .260 xBA is lower than the .285 average opponents have actually produced, and his .309 xwOBA is better than his .337 actual mark. His 4.00 xERA also comes in below his 4.18 ERA.
So yes, a few extra hits can be chalked up to bad luck. But the broader picture is tougher to ignore.
Kirby hasn’t been overpowering hitters. He’s been challenging them, and they’ve been winning more often than they should.
That’s why this matters beyond just one starter’s stat line. Kirby’s value has always been tied to the idea that elite command makes good stuff play up even more.
Right now, that formula is slipping. The pitches are still getting into the zone.
They’re just getting hit once they’re there.
And that creates a tricky offseason question for Seattle. Kirby still has value because of his age, track record and club control.
But his current performance makes him a much harder sell as a true frontline starter. Teams will be interested, sure.
The issue is what they’ll be willing to pay.
That gap could make it difficult for the Mariners to get the kind of impact return they’d expect if they put him on the market. Kirby’s name still carries weight.
His current production, not nearly as much. He’ll get attention.
He may not get treated like the arm Seattle once thought it had.
In Other News...
J.P. Crawfords Return Just Created A New Mariners Infield Debate
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The clubs latest move only adds to the uncertainty. Seattle optioned Leo Rivas to Tacoma while keeping rookie Brock Rodden with the major league club, a sign the Mariners are still weighing how they want the infield configured around Crawford. With Emerson out and the bench being adjusted around him, the way Seattle uses the spot going forward will be worth watching. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Get JP Crawford Back As One Infield Move Raises Eyebrows
JP Crawford is back on the active roster after the Mariners reinstated the veteran shortstop from the injured list following a stretch sidelined by left wrist inflammation. Seattle needed the help in the middle infield, and Crawfords return gives the club a familiar presence at short as it keeps sorting through the ripple effects of infield injuries and roster shuffling.
Leo Rivas was optioned to Triple-A in the corresponding move, a decision that stands out a little more with rookie Colt Emerson also hurt. Crawford is expected to slide right back into shortstop, giving the Mariners a steadier answer there for now while they continue to manage the rest of the infield picture. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Farm System Suddenly Has Three Names Fans Need To Watch
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The position-player side has its own reasons to keep watching. Reese, Seattles 2026 first-round pick, is handling Single-A pitching well and pairing a strong batting average with a healthy on-base percentage, while High-A catcher Luke Stevenson has provided a different sort of production with 18 home runs, 74 RBIs and a walk rate that helps offset a lower average. Between the power, patience and the fast-rising arm, the Mariners suddenly have three names that feel worth tracking closely as the summer goes on. [Read more 🡒]