The Seattle Mariners are still technically alive in the playoff chase, but that’s not really the headline anymore. The more urgent issue is the mess they’re staring at after a season that’s already locked in as a losing one: what, exactly, needs fixing?
George Kirby sits near the center of that conversation. Once an All-Star in 2023 and the kind of arm that looked destined for Cy Young territory, the right-hander has slid into something far less recognizable.
On Wednesday against the Los Angeles Angels, he walked five batters in just 4.1 innings. That alone would have been jarring for almost any starter; for Kirby, it was stunning.
In his first 140 major league starts, he had never walked more than three hitters in a game.
The broader trend is even harder to brush off as a one-night outlier. From 2022 through 2024, Kirby posted a 3.43 ERA with a 1.093 WHIP.
In 2025 and 2026, those numbers have jumped to a 4.23 ERA and a 1.302 WHIP. The old version of Kirby looked like a frontline ace in the making.
The current version looks like a pitcher the Mariners may need to rebuild.
The encouraging part is that he is healthy again. After being limited to 23 starts following an early-season shoulder injury in 2025, Kirby is set to make his 30th start of this season next time out.
The raw stuff is still there, too. He’s averaging 96.7 mph on his four-seamer, which is a career high.
His Stuff+ mark of 101 and Location+ score of 112 both sit right around his usual range. On paper, that looks like a pitcher who ought to be rolling.
And yet the results keep drifting the wrong way. Kirby’s strikeout rate has fallen to a career-low 19.9 percent, while his walk rate has climbed to a career-high 6.1 percent. His 4.24 ERA is the worst of his career, and it lines up closely with a 4.18 xERA that says the numbers are no fluke.
The biggest shift is in how he attacks hitters. Kirby just isn’t pounding the zone the way he used to.
He’s throwing fewer strikes early in counts, getting fewer first-pitch strikes, and reaching two-strike counts less often than he did in his best seasons. The year-by-year trend makes that clear:
Year
Zone%
1st-Pitch Strike%
2-Strike Pitch%
2022
55.1
67.7
32.7
2023
56.8
69.5
33.1
2024
52.0
66.1
33.2
2025
49.9
64.5
32.0
2026
49.5
65.6
30.8
The strange part is that Kirby still performs when he gets ahead. Hitters have managed only a .647 OPS after an 0-1 count and a .619 OPS when he gets to two strikes. Overall, though, they’re hitting .775 OPS against him, which tells the story of a pitcher who isn’t putting himself in those favorable spots often enough.
Why the change? That’s where the diagnosis gets murky.
It could be mechanical, it could be mental, or some combination of both. His arm slot has dipped since last year’s shoulder issue, and he’s leaning less on the fastball while shifting more toward his sweeper and the rest of his seven-pitch mix.
The fix, then, may be simpler in theory than in practice: Kirby might need to go back to a higher release point and become more of a fastball-first pitcher again, with fewer secondaries he trusts. Whether the Mariners are the ones to make that happen is another question entirely.
That depends partly on what happens this winter. Dan Wilson and his staff are reportedly on thin ice, which puts pitching coach Pete Woodworth and director of pitching strategy Trent Blank in question for 2027.
It also depends on whether Kirby is still in Seattle at all. He drew significant interest before the August 3 trade deadline, and teams could circle back this winter.
Even with two rough seasons behind him, he remains young, talented, and under club control through 2028.
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