Cal Raleigh’s season has taken a sharp turn, and the recent surge has at least put some distance between him and the ugly stretch that had him buried in the offensive numbers. By August 1st, he was sitting on a 70 wRC+, the fourth-worst mark of any player with at least 300 plate appearances. That looked nothing like the Raleigh who was in the AL MVP conversation with Aaron Judge a year ago.
But the last few weeks have changed the picture. Since August 1st, Raleigh has posted a 169 wRC+ while blasting 10 home runs and adding four doubles.
He’s been hitting the ball harder, pulling it more often and drawing more walks. The problem is that even this late charge might not be enough to keep him out of an unwanted corner of Mariners history.
Raleigh is still staring at the possibility of finishing below .200, and that would put him in a tiny and miserable group. He’s at .184 through 458 plate appearances, and while that’s not shocking for a player whose career average is just .220, it would still be a brutal finish if it holds. Even if he keeps raking the rest of the way, he could become only the second Mariner to qualify and end a season under the Mendoza line.
That distinction belongs to Evan White. Seattle had huge expectations for him after he climbed as high as No. 4 in the system and No. 56 overall, and the team was confident enough to lock him up with a six-year deal before he made his debut. At the time, it made sense: White had produced in the minors, and the financial risk was relatively modest.
Then came his rookie season in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, when White logged 202 plate appearances and hit .176. He remains the only qualified player in franchise history to finish below .200. The bat never matched the promise, though he did at least bring home a Gold Glove for his defense.
White’s Mariners run ended up as a forgettable one, but the organization’s approach has since resurfaced in another form with Colt Emerson, whom Seattle signed to an even more lucrative contract before his first big league plate appearance. That situation could create a similar kind of pressure, though he’s likely to get a longer leash than White did.
For Raleigh, the math is simple enough. If he finishes the year with 450 at-bats, he needs 90 hits to stay above .200.
That would leave him needing 18 hits in his final 59 at-bats, which works out to a .305 clip. He’s already hit .358 over his last 15 games, so he’s not far off if this stretch continues.
The catch is obvious: he can’t afford another cold spell before the month ends.
Through all of it, Raleigh has kept his composure and stayed positive, no small feat in a game that can grind players down fast. He may remember his lost 2026 season for a long time, especially if it ends with the wrong kind of franchise record. Even so, the final outcome is still in his hands, and there’s reason to think he’ll look much more like himself again by 2027.
In Other News...
Mariners Offseason Bet Looks Worse As Playoff Hopes Fade
Seattles playoff picture has thinned to the point where even a strong finish would have to do a lot of heavy lifting. At 67-78 and 6.5 games behind the Guardians in the Wild Card race, the Mariners are staring at an uphill climb, and the season-long issues on offense have been a major reason why.
Josh Naylor was brought back on a five-year deal as part of the clubs attempt to add dependable production, but his numbers have not matched the standard he set in his best year with Cleveland. In a season where the lineup has already fallen short of expectations, that kind of underperformance has only made the Mariners offseason bet look tougher to justify as the games run out. [Read more 🡒]
Josh Naylor Has Become A Real Mariners Offseason Dilemma
Josh Naylors first season with the Mariners has given the front office a real winter conversation to have. The 29-year-old has still done a lot of the contact-driven work that has defined his game, but his overall offensive output has slipped from the levels hes established in the past. Home runs, RBIs, slugging percentage and OPS are all down, and for a lineup that expected more impact from that spot, the gap has been hard to ignore.
The odd part is that the underlying shape of his at-bats has not changed all that much. Naylor is still making plenty of contact and keeping strikeouts low, but his aggressive style has led him into more pitches outside the zone, and the quality of the contact has suffered because of it. For Seattle, that creates a tricky offseason question: how much weight to give the steadiness of his approach versus the reality that the production hasnt matched it. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Youth Push Just Put Randy Arozarena's Future In Doubt
Seattles push to lean harder into its young core has changed the conversation around Randy Arozarena in a hurry. With Lzaro Montes, Michael Arroyo, Colt Emerson and Cole Young all moving up, the Mariners have signaled a real appetite for accelerating the youth movement, and that naturally brings roster-and-payroll questions with it. Arozarena is in the final year of his arbitration deal, and he is positioned to command a significant multi-year contract when he reaches free agency.
For the Mariners, the issue is no longer just whether Arozarena fits in the lineup. It is whether they want to make a major investment in a veteran at the same moment they are building around younger, cost-controlled players who could define the next wave of the club. Arozarenas own plans for what comes next have not been made public, which leaves the front office with a familiar but increasingly pointed dilemma as the youth push keeps gathering momentum. [Read more 🡒]