Cal Raleigh’s 2026 season has turned into the kind of collapse that sticks out even in a sport built on long slumps and strange numbers.
That’s why Jayson Stark of The Athletic tagged the Mariners catcher as the American League’s “LVP,” or “Least Valuable Player,” and not Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Even with Guerrero’s disappointing year in Toronto, Stark argued Raleigh’s drop-off was on another level entirely.
“The Mariners' catcher has gone from MVP runner-up, 60-homer machine and heartbeat of a team that was eight outs from the World Series to... eh, hoo boy,” Stark writes. “The Big Dumper has been worth 1.1 WAR all season, according to Baseball Reference...”
Seattle’s season has been a mess. The Mariners came within one win of the World Series a year ago, but now the AL West leader has a record under .500 with three games left and no postseason berth to show for it. A lot went wrong, but Raleigh’s regression sits near the center of the wreckage.
Stark made clear that the story goes far beyond one bad stat line.
“But would that alone have been enough to push Raleigh 'ahead' of Vladdy in this LVP derby? It would not," Stark writes.
"To pull that off would have taken one of the steepest drop-offs, from one season to the next, in baseball history. Unfortunately for Raleigh, that's what's he's enduring.”
The numbers tell the story in brutal fashion. Raleigh has fallen from 60 homers to 23 with three games remaining, which Stark noted is the biggest drop-off ever for a 60-homer hitter. His 1.1 bWAR also stands out in the wrong way.
“And if you're wondering how many top-two MVP finishers have ever gone from at least 7.0 that year to under 2. 0the next, that would be none -- until now,” Stark wrote.
Last season, Raleigh posted a .247/.359/.589 slash line. In 2026, those numbers have cratered: his batting average is down 68 points, his on-base percentage has dropped 63 points, and his slugging percentage has plunged 220 points with three games left. Those totals will still move before the season ends, but the size of the fall is already staggering.
His OPS+ has gone from 169 to 92, and his OPS has slid from .948 to .663. Stark framed that as an all-time collapse in major league history.
Guerrero, meanwhile, has had a poor season of his own, with nine homers, a .695 OPS and a 92 OPS+. But the label didn’t land on him because Raleigh’s decline from 2025 to 2026 has been so severe, and Seattle’s team results have been worse than Toronto’s.
So even if Raleigh isn’t the worst player in the American League, his 2026 production has fallen so far below what the Mariners needed that Stark gave him the “LVP” nod.
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Mariners Face A Cal Raleigh Question They Cant Ignore
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Former catcher A.J. Pierzynski weighed in on just how demanding the position can be, pointing to both the physical grind and the mental strain that come with handling so many games behind the plate. The Mariners cant pin Raleighs 2026 struggles on one cause alone, but they do have a decision to make for 2027, and its one that could affect not only his health but also how much offense they get from one of their most central pieces. [Read more 🡒]