Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez were supposed to be the engine. Instead, they’ve been the clearest sign of why the Mariners are sitting a game under .500 at the All-Star break.
Seattle opened the season as FanGraphs’ favorite in the American League, but the club has spent the first half playing below expectation. The biggest reason is simple: the Mariners have not gotten the star-level production they were counting on from their two best bats.
Raleigh and Rodríguez were projected by Steamer to combine for 12 WAR this season after putting up 15 WAR last year. They’re now on pace for just 4 WAR. That gap tells the story of Seattle’s season better than almost anything else.
Raleigh’s drop-off has been especially stark. Nobody expected him to duplicate his semi-historic 2025, but this has gone well beyond regression.
He hasn’t just been worse; he’s been flat-out ineffective. The explanation starts with health.
Manny Acta said Raleigh didn’t get enough reps with Team USA at the World Baseball Classic, tried to make up for it afterward, over exerted, and strained his oblique. Raleigh then tried to “tough guy” his way through the early part of the season before going on the injured list after a long 0-for.
Since returning in mid-June, he still hasn’t looked right. He posted a 62 wRC+ before the injury and an 88 wRC+ since.
Rodríguez has been a different kind of disappointment. He opened with the best start of his career at the plate, then went through a rough stretch in center field.
He cleaned that up defensively in June, only for the bat to go cold. Just as he started heating back up at the end of the month and seemed to be putting it all together, Nolan Schanuel drilled him in the back of the head while running the bases.
Rodríguez is now on the injured list with a concussion.
The damage from those two slumps has been massive because Seattle entered the year expecting elite production from both. Steamer had Raleigh and Rodríguez each in the top five among projected hitters, and when you compare the best projected batters on every team to what they’ve actually produced, no club has fallen shorter than the Mariners.
Top Batter Duos
Team
Player 1
Player 2
Proj
Actual
Diff
SEA Cal Raleigh Julio Rodríguez 11.5 4.0 -7.5
TOR Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Alejandro Kirk 8.9 1.9 -7.0
SD Fernando Tatis Jr Jackson Merrill 9.1 4.5 -4.6
NYM Juan Soto Francisco Lindor 10.4 6.0 -4.4
PHI Trea Turner Bryce Harper 7.5 3.2 -4.3
The teams behind Seattle on that list - Toronto, San Diego, the Mets, and Philadelphia - have all suffered more offensively overall. The Mariners, by contrast, have managed an even 100 wRC+ because the rest of the lineup has held up reasonably well.
That supporting cast has been good enough to keep the offense afloat, even if it hasn’t been spectacular. Randy Arozarena, Dominic Canzone, and Cole Young have turned in solid work.
Josh Naylor, Victor Robles, and Leo Rivas have been on the wrong side of the ledger. J.P.
Crawford has been up and down and can’t play defense. Taken together, the group looks a lot like last year’s version of the lineup.
That’s not a disaster by itself. Last year, Cal and Julio carried the Mariners to a second-place finish by wRC+ and a ninth-place finish by WAR. This season, the rest of the offense has stayed roughly in that same neighborhood.
The problem is that the roster was built to be better than that. Brendan Donovan’s arrival was part of what pushed Seattle into that “AL favorites” tier in the preseason projections, but he hasn’t been on the field.
Rob Refsnyder was supposed to help balance out the lineup’s general lopsidedness, but he’s now the worst player ever acquired by Jerry Dipoto by WAR. Both players are on the injured list.
So while the Mariners have gotten enough from parts of the roster to remain competitive, the shape of the season has changed in one unmistakable way: the team’s biggest expected advantage has disappeared.
In Other News...
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What makes Boylston interesting is the way his game has been shaped by his athletic background and his running ability. He stole 14 bases without being caught for FAU, and that kind of efficiency tends to stand out for an organization that values speed and versatility in the outfield. The next question is how Seattle plans to develop that upside, because the raw tools are obvious enough to merit a closer look. [Read more 🡒]