The Mariners have spent most of this season looking like one of baseball’s biggest letdowns, but the door is still cracked open for a real finish. They’re only 2 ½ games behind the shaky Astros in the AL West, with the Rangers just a half game back of Houston, and that keeps Seattle in the conversation for more than just a wild-card spot. There’s even a path to the three seed in the American League bracket, and maybe, if things break right, the two seed and a bye.
That kind of climb would have sounded absurd not long ago. Seattle just came through a brutal August stretch that threw the Rays, Yankees, Astros, Brewers, Cubs and Phillies at them, and they didn’t fold. The Mariners have won eight of their last 12, took a series in Houston and won home series against both the Cubs and Phillies.
A big reason the mood around the club has shifted: Cal Raleigh suddenly looks alive again.
Raleigh has been the poster child for Seattle’s disappointment this year. Through Aug. 15, he was slashing .156/.266/.291 with 12 homers in 90 games after last season’s 60-homer explosion that left him just short of MVP, behind Aaron Judge by a few votes.
But the last stretch has looked nothing like the first half. Over his last nine games, Raleigh is hitting .348 with a .531 on-base percentage and six home runs, including three Monday night against the Phillies.
Narrow that to the last five games and the numbers get even louder: a .438 average, more walks than strikeouts, five homers and eight RBI. The three-homer night obviously pumps up the totals, but that kind of power binge was part of his identity last year too.
There’s also this: the Mariners haven’t lost a game in which Raleigh homered since April 27. Since then, they are 9-0 when he goes deep.
Seattle will need more than one bat catching fire to make a serious push, but Raleigh matters that much. If he’s turning the corner, that changes the whole look of this team.
And then there’s the schedule.
The next stop is Toronto, where the Mariners will face the subpar-but-sometimes-competent Blue Jays this weekend before heading to Fenway Park for three games against the likely playoff-bound Red Sox. That road trip is no joke, but it’s manageable. After that, the path opens up in a way Seattle couldn’t have asked for much better.
The rest of the slate includes four home games against the Athletics, three at home against the Rangers, three in Sacramento against the A’s, three in Anaheim against the Angels, three at Coors Field against the Rockies, two home games against the Astros and four more at home against the Angels.
When you stack it all up, the Mariners’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .440. That’s the easiest remaining schedule in baseball.
The Astros and Rangers, by comparison, both sit in the top half of the league in remaining schedule difficulty, with opponents winning percentages above .500. Seattle also gets those head-to-head chances at home, which gives them a direct shot to sort out the race themselves.
The odds show just how tight this is. Via Caesars, the Astros are +145 to win the NL West, the Mariners are +160 and the Rangers are +240.
Seattle at +160 is enough to make a believer out of me.
That doesn’t mean the Mariners can just coast into September and expect the bad teams to roll over. They’ve been nine games under .500 this season, haven’t been over .500 since June 9 and are tied for 19th in winning percentage. They’re only 34-34 against sub-.500 teams, so the ugly part of the resume is still very much there.
Still, the setup is there for a rescue act. The American League bracket looks wide open, and the Mariners have a real chance to turn a disappointing year into something far more dangerous.
First, Raleigh has to keep mashing. Then Seattle has to do what good teams do against the bottom of the schedule.
In Other News...
Jarred Kelenic Just Hit Another Painful Career Crossroads
Jarred Kelenic is back on the open market after another turn through the roster churn that has defined much of his recent career. The Texas Rangers designated him for assignment, he cleared waivers and then elected free agency, adding another stop to a journey that has now included multiple clubs and more than one reset this year. For a player once viewed as a potential long-term middle-of-the-order bat, the pattern has become hard to ignore: the tools have shown up in stretches, but the major league production has not stayed attached.
The frustrating part for any team still intrigued by Kelenic is that the underlying appeal has not vanished. He has been hitting well in the minors recently, which is why there is still a chance another organization will see enough to take the next shot. But after failing to carry that success onto the big stage, he is again in the position of trying to convince a club that the next opportunity will look different from the last few. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners Face A September Roster Choice That Could Sway Their Playoff Push
The Mariners are getting close to the September 1 roster expansion, and the timing matters with the club still in the thick of a playoff chase. Seattle is expected to add one pitcher and one position player, giving the front office a chance to deepen a roster that has had to navigate the grind of the summer while trying to stay within striking distance in the American League race.
Right-hander Cooper Criswell is lined up to join the pitching side after finishing his rehab work, but the position-player call is less settled. Brendan Donovans concussion recovery factors into the decision, and the team has several options to weigh as it looks for the right balance of depth and flexibility. With Seattle sitting at 64-69 and Fangraphs giving it about a 45 percent shot at the postseason, these final roster choices could wind up mattering more than a typical September shuffle. [Read more 🡒]
Mariners May Need An Old Pitching Fix To Solve A New Problem
Seattle has at least kicked around a familiar answer to a newer pitching problem: the old piggyback setup. The idea would pair Kade Anderson with Bryce Miller, echoing the tandem the Mariners used successfully with Miller and Luis Castillo, and it makes some sense on paper. Andersons workload limits make him a natural fit for the first half of such a plan, while Miller has been trying to work through a recent dip in performance.
For a club trying to balance immediate innings with long-term health, the appeal is obvious, especially with Miller potentially dealing with the effects of a minor lat issue. The Mariners have not committed to reviving the arrangement, but they also have not shut the door on it, which leaves this as one of those watch-this-space decisions that could shape how they manage the rotation in the days ahead. [Read more 🡒]