Seattle’s Rise, Houston’s Uncertainty: The AL West Balance of Power is Shifting
For nearly a decade, the Houston Astros reigned supreme over the AL West, stacking up seven division titles in eight years and making four trips to the World Series-winning two of them. That kind of sustained dominance doesn’t just happen by accident.
It’s the product of elite player development, savvy front office moves, and a clubhouse culture that expects to win. But as the 2026 season approaches, there’s a new sheriff in town.
The Seattle Mariners have been building toward this moment for years, and in 2025, they finally broke through. Not only did they win the AL West for the first time since 2001, but they also continued their recent mastery over the Astros in head-to-head matchups, taking the season series for a third straight year. That’s not a fluke-that’s a trend.
Seattle didn’t rest on its laurels this offseason either. They locked in Josh Naylor with a five-year deal, then made key trades to bring in José A.
Ferrer and Brendan Donovan. The result?
A roster that’s deeper, more versatile, and arguably better equipped to repeat as division champs. The projections agree-Seattle enters 2026 as the AL West favorite.
But don’t count Houston out just yet. The Astros still believe the division runs through them, and with good reason.
They’ve built a winning culture that doesn’t fold easily. Yet, there’s a potential crack in the armor that could shift the momentum even further in Seattle’s favor.
Josh Hader’s Uncertain Status Raises Questions in Houston
Astros closer Josh Hader is one of the most dominant relievers in baseball-when healthy. That’s the key phrase right now, because as spring training looms, Hader’s availability for Opening Day is very much up in the air.
According to Astros GM Dana Brown, Hader has been throwing lightly on flat ground but hasn’t progressed to full bullpen sessions like many pitchers this time of year. That’s not necessarily unusual for a veteran managing his workload, but there’s more to the story.
Manager Joe Espada confirmed that Hader experienced arm soreness before what would have been his fourth bullpen of the offseason. Imaging revealed biceps inflammation in his throwing arm, and while he’s scheduled to resume throwing, his status for the start of the season is “in flux.”
This comes after Hader’s 2025 campaign ended prematurely due to a capsule sprain in his left shoulder. Back in November, Hader had said he was back to normal, but this latest development suggests otherwise. And for a team like Houston, which leans heavily on the back end of its bullpen, that’s a big deal.
What Hader Means to the Astros
Let’s not understate it-Josh Hader is elite. His career numbers speak for themselves: a 2.64 ERA, 2.89 FIP, and a WHIP under 1.00.
Last season, he was lights-out in Houston, dominating hitters with a combination of velocity, deception, and command. His Baseball Savant page was a sea of red, including a 100th percentile ranking in expected ERA and expected batting average.
Simply put, when Hader’s on the mound, the game often feels over.
The Astros bullpen was one of the best in the league last year, finishing top three in strikeouts and WHIP, and top ten in ERA. Hader was a huge part of that.
Without him, the picture changes. Sure, they still have quality arms like Bryan Abreu and Bryan King, but the depth behind them isn’t nearly as intimidating.
And that’s where the Mariners could benefit.
Seattle’s Window is Wide Open
Let’s be clear: nobody in Seattle is rooting for Hader to miss time. But in a division race that could come down to a handful of games, the absence-or even limited availability-of one of the game’s best closers could be a difference-maker.
The Mariners, for all their progress, had their own bullpen inconsistencies last year. But with a more balanced lineup, a rotation that continues to develop, and a front office that’s clearly going for it, Seattle is positioned to take advantage of any stumble from Houston.
The AL West isn’t decided in February. But make no mistake-every edge matters.
And right now, the Mariners have momentum, health, and perhaps most importantly, belief. The Astros?
They’re still dangerous, but they’ve got questions to answer-starting with the health of their All-Star closer.
The division crown is officially up for grabs. And for the first time in a long time, it might just be Seattle’s to lose.