For much of the last decade, the Houston Astros were the team everyone else in the AL West had to chase. They had the depth, the pitching, the payroll, and the swagger to match.
Year after year, they rolled out a roster that looked like it was built in a lab-elite arms, impact bats, and a bench that would start for half the league. The rest of the division?
Mostly fighting for second place.
But the landscape has shifted. The Seattle Mariners, fresh off their first AL West title in 24 years, are no longer chasing.
They’re defending. And the Astros?
They’re suddenly looking like a team trying to stretch a dollar, not a dynasty steamrolling the division.
Let’s start with the most telling move so far: Houston traded Mauricio Dubón to Atlanta for Nick Allen. On paper, it’s a one-for-one swap of utility infielders.
But dig a little deeper and it’s clear what’s really going on. Dubón, a two-time Gold Glove winner who brought versatility and a competent bat, was arbitration-eligible and due for a raise.
Allen? He’s younger, cheaper, and hasn’t hit at the big-league level.
This wasn’t about baseball upside. It was about trimming payroll.
And that’s not the only sign that Houston’s front office is working with tighter financial parameters than we’ve seen in years. The latest buzz has the Astros shopping Jake Meyers, a plus defender in center field, in hopes of landing some much-needed starting pitching. After Framber Valdez’s departure left a gaping hole in the rotation, Houston’s looking for arms - but they’re doing it by dangling one of their few remaining cost-controlled assets.
Now, you can justify the logic. Meyers is a glove-first outfielder with two years of control left.
That has value, especially to a team looking to shore up its outfield defense. But what’s the return?
Realistically, that kind of profile nets you a mid-rotation starter at best - maybe a bounce-back candidate with some upside if you’re lucky.
So the Astros are staring down a tough choice: trade a key defensive piece to maybe stabilize the rotation, or roll into 2026 with Hunter Brown as your only reliable starter and hope that Cristian Javier and Lance McCullers Jr. rediscover their old form.
That’s not exactly the kind of scenario we’ve come to expect from Houston - a team that once had an embarrassment of riches in the rotation and rarely had to choose between depth and quality.
The financial picture doesn’t offer much relief, either. Projections for 2026 have the Astros’ payroll hovering right around where it was in 2025, with little wiggle room before bumping up against the luxury tax threshold. In other words, don’t expect a big splash unless they find a way to move money around.
Now, let’s be clear: the Astros aren’t falling off a cliff. Not yet.
Hunter Brown looks like he’s ready to take the next step toward ace status. And when Yordan Alvarez is healthy, he’s still one of the most feared hitters in baseball.
The offense still has name recognition. But the margin for error is shrinking fast.
José Altuve will be 36 in 2026. Carlos Correa is well into his thirties.
Both are still paid like stars, but you can’t count on MVP-level production every year anymore. The lineup has thump, but it’s not the same relentless machine it once was.
Meanwhile, the Mariners are sitting in a much more stable position. They’re not just the defending division champs - they’re coming off one of the most complete seasons in franchise history. Their roster is younger, their pitching staff is deeper, and their front office isn’t operating with the same financial handcuffs.
For the first time in a long time, it’s not Seattle trying to chase down Houston. It’s Houston trying to hold things together while the Mariners look poised to run it back.
So the question heading into 2026 isn’t whether the Astros can dominate the AL West again. It’s whether anyone can stop the Mariners from doing it for a second straight year.