The Seattle Kraken’s night against the Vegas Golden Knights was lopsided in most areas Tuesday, but not in the face-off circle. Seattle actually came out on top there, winning 51.5% of the draws.
That result stands out because it hasn’t exactly been the Kraken’s calling card. In their opener, a 6-1 win over Calgary, Seattle won 48.3% of face-offs. In the 3-1 loss to Edmonton, a game still tied with three minutes left, the Kraken were at 45.6%.
Over the long haul, the numbers have stayed modest. In five seasons, Seattle has never finished above 48.6% in face-off wins. Even during its 46-win, 100-point playoff season in 2022-23, the Kraken were next-to-last in the league at 45.3%.
That backdrop keeps dragging the face-off question back into the conversation: how much does it really matter?
Around hockey, the usual answer from fans is no. But research presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference pushed back on that easy dismissal, arguing that face-offs do matter, though their value depends heavily on personnel.
The paper’s actual conclusion went further. It said, “We push back against the common pure conclusion that face-offs are unimportant but concur that their importance comes down to opinions on just how many more face-offs a team can incrementally win within the scope of reasonable personnel changes, situational usage adjustments, and coaching.
“Our research suggests that the core question is not necessarily whether face-offs can be important but rather whether it is possible to predict and affordably acquire the small minority of players that will be standout face-off performers.
“We suggest that elite face-off performers can eclipse over five goals per season in projected effect and that, with strong personnel decisions, face-offs can win meaningful amounts of games over the course of a full season.”
Another line of research, this one from SPORTLogiQ, made a similar point: “Even within the same game context, not all face-off wins are created equal, with some players creating additional value through clean wins and targeting specific areas on the ice.
“In fact, players who generate the most value from face-offs do not necessarily have higher win rates, suggesting that both win percentages and win value must be taken into account to measure the full impact generated during a draw.”
Kraken coach Lane Lambert has also stressed that the dot is only part of the picture. He said the other four skaters matter just as much.
“They have to help out. It’s not just about the centerman.
A lot of times there’s a 50-50 puck laying there. Whether you win that puck is based on how ready you are.
“On wins and losses in our zone, everybody has specific responsibilities. There shouldn’t be any confusion. Of course, things happen sometimes, guys fall down or whatever, and then the thought process switches to what’s the most dangerous play.
“Offensively, you may have to adjust your route based on where the puck goes. Defensively, you may have to adjust what you’re doing based on who the most dangerous player (for the opposition) on the ice is.”
In Other News...
Flames Face A Telling Whitecloud Decision As Trade Buzz Builds
The chatter around Seattles roster keeps drifting toward Shane Wright, a reminder that the Kraken are still weighing how their young core fits together as the season unfolds. Wrights role has become a talking point because his future with the club appears tied to performance, and that has naturally drawn attention from teams around the league looking for help and flexibility.
For Seattle, the intrigue comes from how these conversations intersect with other clubs priorities, especially as Calgary is said to be in no rush to move Zach Whitecloud while valuing his veteran presence on a young blue line. The Red Wings stance on Simon Edvinsson adds another layer to the noise, and for the Kraken it leaves Wright as one of the more closely watched names if trade talks around the league keep building. [Read more 🡒]
Kraken Blue Line Suddenly Faces A Ryan Lindgren Concern
Seattles blue line took an early hit against the Vegas Golden Knights when Ryan Lindgren was injured on a boarding penalty incident in the opening period. The defenseman was forced out after the first and did not return, leaving the Kraken to finish the night shorthanded on the back end.
The immediate concern now is how long Seattle may be without Lindgren as the team heads into an upcoming road trip. With no update yet on the severity or recovery timeline, the Kraken could be looking to their depth for help, and healthy scratches Josh Mahura or Ville Ottavainen are among the options to step into the mix if another defenseman is needed. [Read more 🡒]