The Edmonton Oilers' past week tells you everything you need to know about their season so far - a rollercoaster ride that just won’t stabilize. They opened with back-to-back shutouts, dominating the Vancouver Canucks 6-0 on Saturday and blanking the St.
Louis Blues 5-0 on Sunday. But just when it looked like they might be turning a corner, the wheels came off again.
A 2-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils on Tuesday was followed by a 6-2 drubbing at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday.
It’s been that kind of year in Oil Country: two steps forward, two steps back. For three and a half months now, the Oilers have struggled to string together any real momentum. In fact, they’ve yet to win more than two games in a row all season - a staggering stat for a team that’s been to the Stanley Cup Final in back-to-back years.
The belief around Edmonton has never been whether this team can get going - it’s always been when. But with the 2025-26 season now well past the halfway point, that clock is ticking louder. Suddenly, a scenario that once felt unthinkable - missing the playoffs entirely - is starting to creep into the conversation.
A Soft Division Is the Only Cushion
At 25-19-8 through 52 games, the Oilers sit with 58 points, good for second place in the Pacific Division. That sounds decent until you realize the Pacific is, hands down, the weakest division in the NHL right now. Edmonton is just four points behind the division-leading Vegas Golden Knights, but that’s more a reflection of the division’s mediocrity than the Oilers’ performance.
Just for context: at this point last year, the Oilers had 68 points. The year before that?
- So yes, they’re lagging behind their own standard - and if they were in any other division, they’d be fighting for their playoff lives.
In the Central, they’d be fourth - barely holding onto a wild-card spot. In the Metropolitan, they’d be just outside the playoff picture.
And in the loaded Atlantic? They’d be sixth, three points out.
So while their current standing might look okay on paper, it’s more of a mirage than a safety net.
Pressure Mounting in the Pacific
The Oilers' margin for error is shrinking - fast. The Anaheim Ducks, winners of six straight after a 4-2 victory over the Seattle Kraken on Friday, are suddenly just one point behind Edmonton.
The San Jose Sharks are heating up too, having taken down the New York Rangers 3-1 that same night to reach 55 points. Even the Kraken and Los Angeles Kings, both experienced squads capable of stringing wins together, are lurking with 53 points apiece.
And it’s not just the Pacific Division breathing down Edmonton’s neck. The wild-card race in the West is getting tight, with the Utah Mammoth - riding a scorching 8-0-1 streak - climbing to 56 points. The Sharks currently hold the second wild-card spot in the conference, just one point behind Utah.
In other words, the Oilers are in the thick of it - and the pack is closing in.
91 Points Won’t Cut It
Right now, Edmonton’s point percentage sits at .558 - a pace that would land them at 91 points by season’s end. That might sound respectable, but history says otherwise.
Over the last 12 full-length NHL seasons, only six teams have made the playoffs with fewer than 92 points. And since the Western Conference expanded to 16 teams with the addition of the Kraken in 2021-22, no team has qualified with fewer than 95.
The Oilers haven’t made the playoffs with fewer than 92 points since 1999-00, back when the Western Conference only had 13 teams. That’s how far back you have to go to find a precedent for sneaking in with a sub-92-point season.
So what’s the magic number? Based on recent trends, the Oilers likely need to hit at least 94 points to feel safe. That would require a point percentage of .600 over their final 30 games - a significant jump from where they’ve been operating most of the season.
Can They Flip the Switch?
Of course, the potential is there. This is still a team led by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl - two of the most dynamic players in the game.
They’ve got a core group that’s been to the Stanley Cup Final twice in a row. The experience is there.
The talent is there.
But the consistency? That’s the missing piece.
For the Oilers to avoid slipping into the dreaded “bubble team” category - or worse, becoming a cautionary tale of wasted potential - they need to find another gear. Not just for a weekend.
Not just for a homestand. For the rest of the season.
Because if they can’t string together wins now, when the standings are getting tighter and the pressure is mounting, then maybe this version of the Oilers isn’t the contender we thought they were. Maybe they’re just a middle-of-the-pack team riding the coattails of a weak division.
And if that’s the case, they’ll be watching the playoffs from the outside - a harsh reality for a team built to win now.