The old idea that every young NHL star should chase the full eight-year max term is starting to look outdated, and Macklin Celebrini’s new deal is a perfect example of why.
Celebrini and the Sharks settled on a five-year contract, and while some around the league wondered why San Jose didn’t push for the maximum term, that reaction misses the bigger picture. This wasn’t just a negotiation about years. It was a negotiation against a salary cap that is climbing faster than it ever has before.
That changes everything.
By the 2031-32 season, the NHL cap is projected to sit somewhere in the $150 million to $160 million range. If a player like Celebrini is taking roughly 16 percent of the cap on his next contract, that works out to something like a $24 million AAV.
Under the maximum allowed by the CBA, that number could jump to $30 million. Stretch that over the life of a long-term deal signed today, and a superstar could be leaving $20-30 million on the table.
That’s not really security. That’s a discount.
And that’s why the smartest young players are thinking differently.
Connor Bedard, Celebrini, Jason Robertson, Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli, who is likely to sign soon, all seem to understand the same thing: if the cap keeps rising and they keep producing, there’s another huge payday waiting down the road. Shorter deals and bridge-style contracts aren’t a compromise for this group. They’re the move that makes the most sense.
There are still cases where term matters more than upside. For players in that fringe tier, long-term security can be the right call because the next big contract isn’t guaranteed.
And for veterans in their 30s and beyond, years matter more than chasing the market. They’re not looking for another jump; they’re looking for certainty before the window closes.
That’s where the real shift is happening. Term has become a bigger bargaining chip than AAV.
For rising stars, shorter deals are a bet on themselves and on a cap that keeps going up. For everyone else, locking in years can still be the smarter play.
The trend figures to keep growing as the cap rises over the next several seasons. No star wants to sign a deal today that looks like a bargain in three or four years.
Even Celebrini, who wanted to help the Sharks, may end up as the highest-paid player in the NHL who never actually plays a game as the highest-paid player. Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, and others could wind up topping him.
PuckPedia put it this way: “Celebrini’s deal has set a new high bar for what teams will need to pay to keep a franchise player from fielding offers from rival clubs. But with so many other franchise-calibre players eligible for new deals either now, or within the next 12 months, that bar will only continue to rise.”
In Other News...
Sharks Just Sent A Clear Message With Macklin Celebrini
The Sharks have made their intentions unmistakable with Macklin Celebrini, locking up the centerpiece of their rebuild long before they had to. San Jose signed the young star to a five-year, $94 million contract extension that does not begin until the 2027-28 season, a move that cements him as the franchise face and puts him at the center of everything the organization wants to build.
For a team still trying to climb back into contention, the deal is as much about message as money. It gives the Sharks long-term stability with a player they believe in, and it comes with a structure that includes a significant portion in signing bonuses, underscoring just how heavily the club has invested in keeping Celebrini in teal for the foreseeable future. [Read more 🡒]
Will Smith Just Became A Bigger Priority For The Sharks
Mike Griers latest move only sharpened the Sharks next big task. After locking up Collin Graf on a three-year deal, San Jose now has a clearer picture of its young forward group and a little more urgency to address the player who may matter most in the long run. Will Smith, the 21-year-old and 2023 fourth overall pick, has already shown enough offense in his first two NHL seasons to make him one of the more important pieces in the organizations rebuild.
The Sharks also have the cap flexibility to make a serious push next summer, which should help when it comes time to handle Smith along with other restricted free agents. The tricky part is finding the right number, and that conversation could be shaped by the market for similar young centers around the league. For San Jose, this is the sort of negotiation that can quietly define the direction of the roster, even if the final agreement is still some time away. [Read more 🡒]
Sharks Just Set Up The Macklin Celebrini Debate Fans Expected
Macklin Celebrinis rise has already become one of the defining stories in San Jose, and his new five-year extension only deepens that conversation. The 20-year-old coming off a 115-point season was always going to command a massive number, but the Sharks managed to lock in their franchise centerpiece early, with the deal set to begin in the 2027-28 season and giving the organization a clearer long-term direction.
What makes the contract stand out is how it positions San Jose for the years ahead. Even with Celebrinis place at the center of the rebuild secure, the structure leaves the Sharks with more flexibility than many expected for a player at this level, and it immediately invites the larger question fans were waiting for: how high could the number have gone if the team and Celebrini had pushed all the way to the ceiling? [Read more 🡒]