Macklin Celebrini may be sitting on the NHL’s salary throne by 2027-28, but the path to keeping that crown looks a little less shaky than it first appears.
Celebrini is currently lined up to become the league’s highest paid player when his next deal kicks in at the start of the 2027-28 season, with a projected cap hit of $18.8 million. For now, though, he still has one more year left on his entry-level contract. That leaves a simple question hanging in the air: who, if anyone, can outbid him before he gets there?
There are names in the mix, and a few of them could push the market into wild territory if they reach July 1, 2027 without a new contract.
Nikita Kucherov is one of the first stars that comes to mind, but his situation is complicated. If he stays in Tampa, the Lightning would likely need him to accept well below market value to make the money work.
The team would probably only be able to get to around $15 million, and anything beyond that would require moving a meaningful piece out of the roster. That makes it tough to imagine him overtaking Celebrini, even though the talent is absolutely there.
Jason Robertson is another player who could force teams to empty the vault. There was plenty of chatter about him leaving the Dallas Stars this summer, but he ended up agreeing to a deal that takes him right to unrestricted free agency.
His $12 million cap hit is already below what he might have landed this summer, especially after it was reported that he turned down a contract worth $15 million per season from the Seattle Kraken. If he reaches the open market in 2027, the payday could be massive.
Still, he does not profile as the obvious candidate to become the NHL’s top earner - unless the Stars let things drift all the way to free agency.
The most realistic threats may be on defense, where the top of the market is more fluid. Bowen Byram currently owns the highest-value contract signed by a defenseman, with a $12.5 million cap hit beginning at the same time as Celebrini’s deal. Even that won’t hold the title for long.
Then there’s Cale Makar, the major swing piece among the defensemen. He’s the final member of Colorado’s core group who has not yet been extended beyond the current decade, with Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Devon Toews, and even MacKenzie Blackwood all signed into the 2030s.
The Avalanche don’t have much cap room to work with right now, but next summer the cap is expected to rise significantly. Even so, it’s difficult to picture Makar choosing to leave Colorado, and he may well follow MacKinnon’s lead by taking less than market value to keep the group together.
Quinn Hughes is the real wild card in all of this. If he becomes the NHL’s first $20 million player, nobody would be stunned. A deal in Minnesota would be more surprising, since it would likely require major roster turnover to make it happen, but it is still possible.
Hughes also appears to be the likeliest of the names discussed to actually hit free agency, and that could set off a bidding war unlike anything the league has seen in recent years. There’s been a long-running rumor that he’d be open to a pay cut to join the New Jersey Devils with his brothers Jack and Luke.
He’s also hinted that he wants to stay in Minnesota, which would again mean accepting less than market value. But if another team gets involved - especially one desperate for an elite defenseman - Hughes could become the biggest threat of all to Celebrini’s place at the top of the salary chart.
For now, though, the 2027 free-agent class makes it look like Celebrini should hold onto that distinction for at least one season. The talent is there for someone to challenge him, but the contract circumstances make it a long shot. And if one of these stars makes an unexpected move, the NHL’s salary hierarchy could get chaotic in a hurry.
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