PECOTA Pegs Giants as Fringe Contenders in 2026-But Is There More Under the Hood?
The latest PECOTA projections are out, and for the San Francisco Giants, the numbers paint a familiar picture: solid, but not quite playoff-bound. Baseball Prospectus’ model has the Giants finishing with 81.5 wins-just a tick above last year’s total, but still on the outside looking in when it comes to the National League Wild Card race.
A Half-Step Forward, But Is It Enough?
Let’s start with the good news: the Giants are projected to improve, albeit marginally. A 0.5-win bump might not sound like much, but in a crowded NL playoff race, every decimal matters.
The bad news? They’re still stuck in that murky middle tier-good enough to stay relevant, not quite good enough to break through.
That’s where PECOTA sees them, and frankly, it’s hard to argue with the logic.
The Division Landscape: Dodgers Still Dominant
The NL West continues to be the Dodgers’ playground. PECOTA has them cruising to another division crown with 103.8 wins-a number that reflects both their star power and depth. That leaves the Giants battling it out with the likes of the Mets (89.0 wins), Phillies (85.5), and Padres (80.8) for one of the three Wild Card spots.
Interestingly, the Padres were actually ahead of the Giants in earlier projections, but after a flurry of weekend moves-including the additions of Nick Castellanos, Griffin Canning, and Germán Márquez-they’ve slipped just behind San Francisco in the latest update. It’s a reminder that not all roster moves translate to projected wins, at least not immediately.
Braves Bounce Back, Wild Card Threshold Drops
Elsewhere in the NL, PECOTA sees a bounce-back year for the Atlanta Braves, projecting them to win the NL East after a surprising 76-win campaign in 2025. That’s a team loaded with talent, and the model seems to be betting on regression to the mean-in a good way.
Another key takeaway: the bar to reach the postseason in the National League might be lower than usual this year. Last season, the Reds grabbed the final Wild Card slot with just 83 wins. If that trend holds, the Giants don’t need to be perfect-they just need to be better.
Offseason Moves: Raising the Floor, Not the Ceiling
San Francisco’s front office didn’t make any blockbuster splashes this winter, but they did get to work. Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle bring veteran stability to the rotation.
Harrison Bader shores up the outfield defense. And Luis Arráez adds a high-contact bat that lengthens the lineup and brings some much-needed consistency.
The biggest name to leave was Justin Verlander, who gave the Giants a solid 3.85 ERA across 29 starts last season. His absence will be felt, but the additions seem designed to cushion that loss rather than replace it outright.
In short, the Giants didn’t go star-hunting-they went role-filling. And while that strategy doesn’t necessarily raise the team’s ceiling, it does help maintain a respectable floor. PECOTA sees that floor sitting right around 81 wins.
Bullpen Remains a Question Mark
If there’s one glaring concern heading into spring, it’s the bullpen. By the end of last season, it was clearly a weak link-and so far, the front office hasn’t made significant moves to address it. Buster Posey even hinted that most relief roles will be up for grabs in camp, which tells you all you need to know about the current state of that unit.
The issue isn’t just about talent-it’s about reliability. Can this bullpen hold late leads?
Can it keep games within reach? That might be the difference between 81 wins and 85.
ZiPS Sees Slightly More Optimism
Interestingly, the ZiPS projection system was a bit more bullish on the Giants, pegging them at 84 wins even before the Arráez signing. That suggests there’s a version of this team that can push into the postseason mix-especially if the rotation stays healthy and the lineup produces as expected.
But again, it comes back to the bullpen. The starters and hitters may need to carry a heavier load if that group can’t hold up its end of the bargain.
Improved, But Still Work to Do
Despite PECOTA’s modest projection, there’s a quiet optimism around this team. Several front office execs have labeled the Giants one of the most improved clubs in the NL-not because of flashy additions, but because of smart, targeted ones. If they can build on last year’s 81-win campaign and squeeze a few more wins out of this current core, they’ve got a real shot at sneaking into the playoff picture.
In a National League that’s wide open beyond the top tier, the Giants don’t need to be dominant-they just need to be better. And according to PECOTA, they might be-just not quite enough... yet.