The Reds are still very much in the mix for Kyle Schwarber, and the fit is hard to ignore. A Cincinnati native and lifelong Reds fan, Schwarber checks a lot of boxes for a team that’s clearly in the market for power. The question now is whether the front office - and more importantly, ownership - is ready to make the kind of financial commitment it would take to land one of the game’s premier sluggers.
Let’s start with the need. Cincinnati finished 14th in runs scored last season, which doesn’t sound terrible until you remember they play half their games at Great American Ball Park - one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball.
Despite that, they posted a collective .245/.315/.391 slash line and ranked 21st in home runs. That’s not going to cut it for a team trying to take the next step.
Elly De La Cruz led the club with 22 homers, and the only two Reds hitters to post a slugging percentage north of .450 in at least 100 plate appearances - Miguel Andujar and Austin Hays - are now free agents. So yes, the Reds need offense.
But more specifically, they need thump. And that’s exactly what Schwarber brings.
Coming off a 56-homer campaign in which he slashed .240/.365/.563 and started all 162 games for the Phillies, Schwarber is arguably the most dangerous power bat available this offseason. He hasn’t hit fewer than 30 home runs in a full season since 2018, and over the past four years, he’s tied with Shohei Ohtani for second in the majors in long balls - trailing only Aaron Judge. That’s elite company.
From a roster standpoint, the fit is clean. The Reds don’t have a full-time designated hitter locked in, and while they’re hoping 22-year-old Sal Stewart can eventually handle first base, they’re not there yet. Spencer Steer could see more time in left field or even be dangled in trade talks if Schwarber - or another big bat like Pete Alonso - were to come aboard.
But here’s the rub: signing Schwarber would mean stepping outside the Reds’ typical financial comfort zone. He’s expected to command well north of $100 million, potentially in the $30 million per year range.
That’s rare air for this franchise. The only two nine-figure deals in Reds history - Joey Votto’s $225 million and Homer Bailey’s $105 million - were extensions, not free agent contracts.
Their priciest free agent signings to date? Matching four-year, $64 million deals for Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas, both of which carried a $16 million average annual value.
Schwarber could cost nearly double that.
President of baseball operations Nick Krall has already said the Reds expect to maintain a payroll similar to last year, which opened around $116 million. Right now, they’ve got about $40 million committed in guaranteed contracts, but arbitration projections could tack on another $45 million. That leaves maybe $20-25 million in wiggle room - not a ton if you’re eyeing a top-tier bat like Schwarber.
To pull it off, the Reds would likely need to either stretch their budget or free up money by moving one or more arbitration-eligible players. Candidates include Brady Singer ($11.9 million projected), Tyler Stephenson ($6.4 million), Gavin Lux ($5 million), TJ Friedl ($4.9 million), Nick Lodolo ($4.3 million), and Steer ($4.5 million). That’s not an easy call, but it might be the price of doing business if Cincinnati wants to land a true middle-of-the-order threat.
Elsewhere, there’s at least one other team kicking the tires on Schwarber: the Giants. But that situation is far more complicated.
San Francisco already has Rafael Devers under contract through 2033, and they’ll need to find at-bats for top first base prospect Bryce Eldridge, who’s knocking on the door at Triple-A. Unless they move Eldridge in a trade - which doesn’t seem imminent - it’s hard to see how Schwarber fits into their long-term plans, especially if he’s not playing the outfield.
And given the Giants' reluctance to hand out nine-figure deals to starting pitchers - their stated top priority - it’d be a shock to see them go all-in on a designated hitter.
One more wrinkle: Schwarber turned down a qualifying offer, meaning any team that signs him will have to forfeit draft compensation. That’s not a deal-breaker, but it’s something to factor into the total cost.
The Phillies, unsurprisingly, want him back. The Orioles and Red Sox are also reportedly in the market for a big bat and have shown interest. The Pirates have been floated as a long shot, though their failed pursuit of Josh Naylor suggests they’re not quite ready to swim in these waters.
For the Reds, this is a moment of truth. Schwarber fits the roster, fits the city, and fits the need. The only question is whether ownership is ready to make a move that signals they’re serious about contending - not just hoping to.