Padres Rotation Gamble With Robbie Ray Looks Worse Than Expected

In a trade that seemed promising at the deadline, the Padres' acquisition of Robbie Ray ultimately falls short, leaving their starting rotation in limbo.

When the Padres got aggressive at the Aug. 3 trade deadline, they knew the rotation needed help behind Michael King. San Diego went out and added Robbie Ray and Casey Mize, trying to patch together a staff that also featured Walker Buehler and Randy Vasquez, with Nick Pivetta and Joe Musgrove eventually coming back from injuries for the postseason.

The idea made sense at the time. The results, especially with Ray, did not.

Mize never even cracked the Padres’ postseason roster for either the wild-card round or the Division Series, and Ray’s time in San Diego never came close to matching the production the Giants later got from him. On deadline day, the Padres sent two minor leaguers to San Francisco: shortstop Joniel Hernandez and pitcher Miguel Mendez.

Hernandez is 17 and plays shortstop in the Dominican Summer League. Mendez is 24 and finished the 2024 season at Double-A, where he gave up 10 runs in 10.2 innings for an 8.44 ERA across four starts for the Giants’ affiliate.

Ray’s numbers in San Diego told the rest of the story. He went 3-2 with a 5.02 ERA in nine starts, and he issued 27 walks in just 43 innings.

The Padres used him in two NLDS games mostly because they didn’t have many other options. Against the Brewers, he allowed three runs on five hits, with three walks and one strikeout over 3.2 innings.

Now Ray is a free agent, and the Padres appear headed in a different direction. A.J. Preller probably won’t be eager to bring back a pitcher who finished the most important stretch of his age-34 season with a 5.21 ERA in 11 games.

Ray will have a very different selling point when he hits the market. He can point to his work in San Francisco, where he went 10-6 with a 3.08 ERA in 22 games, 21 of them starts.

The financial side only sharpens the contrast. Ray signed a five-year, $115 million deal with the Mariners in November 2021, and the Padres only covered a small piece of that, about $8.3 million. For that price, plus whatever Mendez and Hernandez become, San Diego didn’t get nearly enough back from Ray’s final two months and postseason.

If Ray had delivered, the Padres might have had a real reason to keep him around and even think about 2027. Instead, they’re back where they started: looking at a rotation full of question marks.

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